RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Structure in the variability of the basic reproductive number (<em>R</em><sub>0</sub>) for Zika epidemics in the Pacific islands
JF bioRxiv
FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
SP 064949
DO 10.1101/064949
A1 Clara Champagne
A1 David Georges Salthouse
A1 Richard Paul
A1 Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau
A1 Benjamin Roche
A1 Bernard Cazelles
YR 2016
UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2016/07/20/064949.abstract
AB Before the outbreak that reached the Americas in 2015, Zika virus (ZIKV) circulated in Asia and the Pacific: these past epidemics can be highly informative on the key parameters driving virus transmission, such as the basic reproduction number (R0). We compare two compartmental models with different mosquito representations, using surveillance and seroprevalence data for several ZIKV outbreaks in Pacific islands (Yap, Micronesia 2007, Tahiti and Moorea, French Polynesia 2013-2014, New Caledonia 2014). Models are estimated in a stochastic framework with state-of-the-art Bayesian techniques. R0 for the Pacific ZIKV epidemics is estimated between 1.5 and 4.1, the smallest islands displaying higher and more variable values. This relatively low range of R0 suggests that intervention strategies developed for other flaviviruses should enable as, if not more effective control of ZIKV. Our study also highlights the importance of seroprevalence data for precise quantitative analysis of pathogen propagation, to design prevention and control strategies.