RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Climate-driven range shifts in fragmented ecosystems
JF bioRxiv
FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
SP 090852
DO 10.1101/090852
A1 Robin Cristofari
A1 Xiaoming Liu
A1 Francesco Bonadonna
A1 Yves Cherel
A1 Pierre Pistorius
A1 Yvon Le Maho
A1 Virginie Raybaud
A1 Nils Chr Stenseth
A1 Céline Le Bohec
A1 Emiliano Trucchi
YR 2016
UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2016/12/02/090852.abstract
AB Range shift is the primary short-term response of species to rapid climate change but it is hampered by natural or anthropogenic habitat fragmentation. Fragmented habitats expose different critical areas of a species niche to heterogeneous environmental changes resulting in uncoupled effects. Modelling species distribution under complex real-life scenarios and incorporating such uncoupled effects has not been achieved yet. Here we identify the most vulnerable areas and the potential cold refugia of a top-predator with fragmented niche range in the Southern ocean by integrating genomic, ecological and behavioural data with atmospheric and oceanographic models. Our integrative approach constitutes an indispensable example for predicting the effect of global warming on species relying on spatially and ecologically distinct areas to complete their life-cycle (e.g., migratory animals, marine pelagic organisms, central-place foragers) and, in general, on species constrained in fragmented landscapes due to continuously-growing anthropogenic pressure.