PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Qian Zhang
AU  - Kaiyuan Sun
AU  - Matteo Chinazzi
AU  - Ana Pastore-Piontti
AU  - Natalie E. Dean
AU  - Diana Patricia Rojas
AU  - Stefano Merler
AU  - Dina Mistry
AU  - Piero Poletti
AU  - Luca Rossi
AU  - Margaret Bray
AU  - M. Elizabeth Halloran
AU  - Ira M. Longini, Jr.
AU  - Alessandro Vespignani
TI  - Projected spread of Zika virus in the Americas
AID  - 10.1101/066456
DP  - 2016 Jan 01
TA  - bioRxiv
PG  - 066456
4099  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2016/12/12/066456.short
4100  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2016/12/12/066456.full
AB  - We use a data-driven global stochastic epidemic model to project past and future spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas. The model has high spatial and temporal resolution, and integrates real-world demographic, human mobility, socioeconomic, temperature, and vector density data. We estimate that the first introduction of ZIKV to Brazil likely occurred between August 2013 and April 2014 (90% credible interval). We provide simulated epidemic profiles of incident ZIKV infections for several countries in the Americas through February 2017. The ZIKV epidemic is characterized by slow growth and high spatial and seasonal heterogeneity, attributable to the dynamics of the mosquito vector and to the characteristics and mobility of the human populations. We project the expected timing and number of pregnancies infected with ZIKV during the first trimester, and provide estimates of microcephaly cases assuming different levels of risk as reported in empirical retrospective studies. Our approach represents an early modeling effort aimed at projecting the potential magnitude and timing of the ZIKV epidemic that might be refined as new and more accurate data from the region become available.