RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Changing geographic patterns and risk factors for avian influenza A(H7N9) infection in China
JF bioRxiv
FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
SP 146183
DO 10.1101/146183
A1 Jean Artois
A1 Xiling Wang
A1 Hui Jiang
A1 Ying Qin
A1 Morgan Pearcy
A1 Shengjie Lai
A1 Yujing Shi
A1 Juanjuan Zhang
A1 Zhibin Peng
A1 Jiandong Zheng
A1 Yangni He
A1 Madhur S Dhingra
A1 Sophie von Dobschuetz
A1 Fusheng Guo
A1 Vincent Martin
A1 Wantanee Kalpravidh
A1 Filip Claes
A1 Timothy Robinson
A1 Simon I. Hay
A1 Xiangming Xiao
A1 Luzhao Feng
A1 Marius Gilbert
A1 Hongjie Yu
YR 2017
UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2017/06/08/146183.abstract
AB The 5th epidemic wave in 2016-2017 of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China caused more human cases than any previous waves but the factors that may explain the recent range expansion and surge in incidence remain unknown. We investigated the effect of anthropogenic, poultry and wetland information and of market closures on all epidemic waves (1-5). Poultry predictor variables recently became much more important than before, supporting the assumption of much wider H7N9 transmission in the chicken reservoir, that could be linked to increases in pathogenicity. We show that the future range expansion of H7N9 to northern China may translate into a higher risk of coinciding peaks with those of seasonal influenza, leading to a higher risk of reassortments. Live-poultry market closures are showed to be effective in reducing the local incidence rates of H7N9 human cases, but should be paired with other prevention and control measures to prevent transmission.