RT Journal Article SR Electronic T1 Potential for rapid genetic adaptation to warming in a Great Barrier Reef coral JF bioRxiv FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory SP 114173 DO 10.1101/114173 A1 Mikhail V. Matz A1 Eric A. Treml A1 Galina V. Aglyamova A1 Madeleine J. H. van Oppen A1 Line K. Bay YR 2017 UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2017/06/18/114173.abstract AB Can genetic adaptation in reef-building corals keep pace with the current rate of sea surface warming? Here we combine population genomic, biophysical modeling, and evolutionary simulations to predict future adaptation of the common coral Acropora millepora on the Great Barrier Reef. Loss of coral cover in recent decades did not yet have detectable effect on genetic diversity in our species. Genomic analysis of migration patterns closely matched the biophysical model of larval dispersal in favoring the spread of existing heat-tolerant alleles from lower to higher latitudes. Given these conditions we find that standing genetic variation could be sufficient to fuel rapid adaptation of A. millepora to warming for the next 100-200 years, although random thermal anomalies would drive increasingly severe mortality episodes. However, this adaptation will inevitably cease unless the warming is slowed down, since no realistic mutation rate could replenish adaptive genetic variation fast enough.