PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Jessica L. Abbate
AU  - Carmen Lia Murall
AU  - Heinz Richner
AU  - Christian L. Althaus
TI  - Potential impact of sexual transmission of Ebola virus on the epidemic in West Africa
AID  - 10.1101/031880
DP  - 2015 Jan 01
TA  - bioRxiv
PG  - 031880
4099  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2015/12/04/031880.short
4100  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2015/12/04/031880.full
AB  - Ebola virus RNA can persist in seminal fluids of male convalescent patients after they recover from Ebola virus disease (EVD). We developed a novel compartmental EVD transmission model, Monte Carlo simulations, and performed sensitivity analyses to assess the potential impact of sexual transmission on the epidemic dynamics. Though few extra cases are expected due to sexual transmission from male survivors, the length of the epidemic tail is significantly affected. Fitting the model to weekly incidence data from Sierra Leone, we found that a 0.1% per sex act transmission probability and a convalescence period of 3 and 6 months could extend the EVD epidemic by 83 days (95% CI: 68–98 days) and 540 days (95% CI: 508–572 days), respectively. The latter would double the current length of the epidemic in Sierra Leone and highlights the importance of ongoing surveillance efforts in West Africa.