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Fitting the Balding-Nichols model to forensic databases

Rori V. Rohlfs, Vitor R. C. Aguiar, Kirk E. Lohmueller, Amanda M. Castro, Alessandro C. S. Ferreira, Vanessa C. O. Almeida, Iuri D. Louro, Rasmus Nielsen
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/009969
Rori V. Rohlfs
1University of California, Berkeley Department of Integrative Biology
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Vitor R. C. Aguiar
3Universidade Federal do Esírito Santo Departamento de Ciências Biológicas
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Kirk E. Lohmueller
2University of California, Los Angeles Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
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Amanda M. Castro
3Universidade Federal do Esírito Santo Departamento de Ciências Biológicas
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Alessandro C. S. Ferreira
3Universidade Federal do Esírito Santo Departamento de Ciências Biológicas
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Vanessa C. O. Almeida
3Universidade Federal do Esírito Santo Departamento de Ciências Biológicas
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Iuri D. Louro
3Universidade Federal do Esírito Santo Departamento de Ciências Biológicas
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Rasmus Nielsen
1University of California, Berkeley Department of Integrative Biology
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Abstract

Large forensic databases provide an opportunity to compare observed empirical rates of genotype matching with those expected under forensic genetic models. A number of researchers have taken advantage of this opportunity to validate some forensic genetic approaches, particularly to ensure that estimated rates of genotype matching between unrelated individuals are indeed slight overestimates of those observed. However, these studies have also revealed systematic error trends in genotype probability estimates. In this analysis, we investigate these error trends and show how the specific implementation of the Balding-Nichols model must be considered when applied to database-wide matching. Specifically, we show that in addition to accounting for increased allelic matching between individuals with recent shared ancestry, studies must account for relatively decreased allelic matching between individuals with more ancient shared ancestry.

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The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license.
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Posted October 03, 2014.
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Fitting the Balding-Nichols model to forensic databases
Rori V. Rohlfs, Vitor R. C. Aguiar, Kirk E. Lohmueller, Amanda M. Castro, Alessandro C. S. Ferreira, Vanessa C. O. Almeida, Iuri D. Louro, Rasmus Nielsen
bioRxiv 009969; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/009969
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Fitting the Balding-Nichols model to forensic databases
Rori V. Rohlfs, Vitor R. C. Aguiar, Kirk E. Lohmueller, Amanda M. Castro, Alessandro C. S. Ferreira, Vanessa C. O. Almeida, Iuri D. Louro, Rasmus Nielsen
bioRxiv 009969; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/009969

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