Skip to main content
bioRxiv
  • Home
  • About
  • Submit
  • ALERTS / RSS
Advanced Search
New Results

Big city, small world: Density, contact rates, and transmission of dengue across Pakistan

M.U.G. Kraemer, T.A. Perkins, D.A.T. Cummings, R. Zakar, S.I. Hay, D.L. Smith, R.C. Reiner
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/018481
M.U.G. Kraemer
1Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3PS, United Kingdom
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • For correspondence: moritz.kraemer@zoo.ox.ac.uk rcreiner@indiana.edu
T.A. Perkins
2Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, United States
3Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, United States
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
D.A.T. Cummings
4Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, United States
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
R. Zakar
5Department of Public Health, University of Punjab, Lahore, 54590, Pakistan
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
S.I. Hay
3Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, United States
6Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7BN, United States
7Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98121, United States
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
D.L. Smith
1Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3PS, United Kingdom
3Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, United States
8Sanaria Institute for Global Health and Tropical Medicine, Rockville, MD 20850, United States
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
R.C. Reiner
3Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, United States
9Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN 47405, United States
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • For correspondence: moritz.kraemer@zoo.ox.ac.uk rcreiner@indiana.edu
  • Abstract
  • Full Text
  • Info/History
  • Metrics
  • Preview PDF
Loading

Abstract

Macroscopic descriptions of populations commonly assume that encounters between individuals are well mixed; i.e., each individual has an equal chance of coming into contact with any other individual. Relaxing this assumption can be challenging though, due to the difficulty of acquiring detailed knowledge about the non-random nature of encounters. Here, we fitted a mathematical model of dengue virus transmission to spatial time series data from Pakistan and compared maximum-likelihood estimates of “mixing parameters” when disaggregating data across an urban-rural gradient. We show that dynamics across this gradient are subject not only to differing transmission intensities but also to differing strengths of nonlinearity due to differences in mixing. We furthermore show that neglecting spatial variation in mixing can lead to substantial underestimates of the level of effort needed to control a pathogen with vaccines or other control efforts. We complement this analysis with relevant contemporary environmental drivers of dengue.

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.
Back to top
PreviousNext
Posted April 27, 2015.
Download PDF
Email

Thank you for your interest in spreading the word about bioRxiv.

NOTE: Your email address is requested solely to identify you as the sender of this article.

Enter multiple addresses on separate lines or separate them with commas.
Big city, small world: Density, contact rates, and transmission of dengue across Pakistan
(Your Name) has forwarded a page to you from bioRxiv
(Your Name) thought you would like to see this page from the bioRxiv website.
CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.
Share
Big city, small world: Density, contact rates, and transmission of dengue across Pakistan
M.U.G. Kraemer, T.A. Perkins, D.A.T. Cummings, R. Zakar, S.I. Hay, D.L. Smith, R.C. Reiner
bioRxiv 018481; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/018481
Reddit logo Twitter logo Facebook logo LinkedIn logo Mendeley logo
Citation Tools
Big city, small world: Density, contact rates, and transmission of dengue across Pakistan
M.U.G. Kraemer, T.A. Perkins, D.A.T. Cummings, R. Zakar, S.I. Hay, D.L. Smith, R.C. Reiner
bioRxiv 018481; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/018481

Citation Manager Formats

  • BibTeX
  • Bookends
  • EasyBib
  • EndNote (tagged)
  • EndNote 8 (xml)
  • Medlars
  • Mendeley
  • Papers
  • RefWorks Tagged
  • Ref Manager
  • RIS
  • Zotero
  • Tweet Widget
  • Facebook Like
  • Google Plus One

Subject Area

  • Ecology
Subject Areas
All Articles
  • Animal Behavior and Cognition (4684)
  • Biochemistry (10361)
  • Bioengineering (7680)
  • Bioinformatics (26337)
  • Biophysics (13533)
  • Cancer Biology (10692)
  • Cell Biology (15445)
  • Clinical Trials (138)
  • Developmental Biology (8498)
  • Ecology (12823)
  • Epidemiology (2067)
  • Evolutionary Biology (16867)
  • Genetics (11401)
  • Genomics (15481)
  • Immunology (10619)
  • Microbiology (25223)
  • Molecular Biology (10225)
  • Neuroscience (54478)
  • Paleontology (402)
  • Pathology (1668)
  • Pharmacology and Toxicology (2897)
  • Physiology (4345)
  • Plant Biology (9250)
  • Scientific Communication and Education (1586)
  • Synthetic Biology (2558)
  • Systems Biology (6781)
  • Zoology (1466)