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AN ACCURATE GENETIC CLOCK

D. H. Hamilton
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/019414
D. H. Hamilton
Department of Mathematics, University of Maryland
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Abstract

Molecular clocks give “Time to most recent common ancestor” TMRCA of genetic trees. By Watson-Galton17 most lineages terminate, with a few overrepresented singular lineages generated by W. Hamilton’s “kin selection”13. Applying current methods to this non-uniform branching produces greatly exaggerated TMRCA. We introduce an inhomogenous stochastic process which detects singular lineages by asymmetries, whose reduction gives true TMRCA. This implies a new method for computing mutation rates. Despite low rates similar to mitosis data, reduction implies younger TMRCA, with smaller errors. We establish accuracy by a comparison across a wide range of time, indeed this is only clock giving consistent results for both short and long term times. In particular we show that the dominant European y-haplotypes R1a1a & R1b1a2, expand from c3700BC, not reaching Anatolia before c3300BC. While this contradicts current clocks which date R1b1a2 to either the Neolithic Near East4 or Paleo-Europe20, our dates support recent genetic analysis of ancient skeletons by Reich23.

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The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.
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Posted May 20, 2015.
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AN ACCURATE GENETIC CLOCK
D. H. Hamilton
bioRxiv 019414; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/019414
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AN ACCURATE GENETIC CLOCK
D. H. Hamilton
bioRxiv 019414; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/019414

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