Abstract
Ebola virus RNA can persist in seminal fluids of male convalescent patients after they recover from Ebola virus disease (EVD). We used a compartmental EVD transmission model, Monte Carlo simulations, and performed sensitivity analyses to assess the potential impact of sexual transmission on the epidemic dynamics. The rate of sexual transmission and the period during which convalescent men can transmit sexually both affect the number of excess EVD cases, while the latter also influences the duration of the epidemic. Assuming an average convalescent period of 3 months, and a per sex act transmission probability of 0.1%, we found that sexual transmission could extend the EVD epidemic in Sierra Leone by 134 days (95% CI: 121-146 days). These results show the importance of ongoing surveillance efforts in West Africa and call for a better understanding of the persistence and infectivity of Ebola virus RNA in convalescent patients.
