Abstract
Ebola virus RNA can persist in seminal fluids of male convalescent patients after they recover from Ebola virus disease (EVD). We developed a novel compartmental EVD transmission model, Monte Carlo simulations, and performed sensitivity analyses to assess the potential impact of sexual transmission on the epidemic dynamics. Though few extra cases are expected due to sexual transmission from male survivors, the length of the epidemic tail is significantly affected. Fitting the model to weekly incidence data from Sierra Leone, we found that a 0.1% per sex act transmission probability and a convalescence period of 3 and 6 months could extend the EVD epidemic by 83 days (95% CI: 68–98 days) and 540 days (95% CI: 508–572 days), respectively. The latter would double the current length of the epidemic in Sierra Leone and highlights the importance of ongoing surveillance efforts in West Africa.
