Skip to main content
bioRxiv
  • Home
  • About
  • Submit
  • ALERTS / RSS
Advanced Search
New Results

An ecological assessment of the pandemic threat of Zika virus

Colin J. Carlson, Eric R. Dougherty, Wayne Getz
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/040386
Colin J. Carlson
1Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, 130 Mulford Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • For correspondence: cjcarlson@berkeley.edu
Eric R. Dougherty
1Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, 130 Mulford Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Wayne Getz
1Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, 130 Mulford Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
2School of Mathematical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • Abstract
  • Full Text
  • Info/History
  • Metrics
  • Supplementary material
  • Preview PDF
Loading

Summary

The current outbreak of Zika virus poses a threat of unknown magnitude to human health1. While the range of the virus has been cataloged growing slowly over the last 50 years, the recent explosive expansion in the Americas indicates that the full potential distribution of Zika remains uncertain2-4. Moreover, most current epidemiology relies on its similarities to dengue fever, a phylogenetically closely related disease of unknown similarity in spatial range or ecological niche5,6. Here we compile the first spatially explicit global occurrence dataset from Zika viral surveillance and serological surveys, and construct ecological niche models to test basic hypotheses about its spread and potential establishment. The hypothesis that the outbreak of cases in Mexico and North America are anomalous and outside the ecological niche of the disease, and may be linked to El Nino or similar climatic events, remains plausible at this time7. Comparison of the Zika niche against the known distribution of dengue fever suggests that Zika is more constrained by the seasonality of precipitation and diurnal temperature fluctuations, likely confining the disease to the tropics outside of pandemic scenarios. Projecting the range of the diseases in conjunction with vector species (Aedes africanus, Ae. aegypti, and Ae. albopictus) that transmit the pathogens, under climate change, suggests that Zika has potential for northward expansion; but, based on current knowledge, Zika is unlikely to fill the full range its vectors occupy. With recent sexual transmission of the virus known to have occurred in the United States, we caution that our results only apply to the vector-borne aspect of the disease, and while the threat of a mosquito-carried Zika pandemic may be overstated in the media, other transmission modes of the virus may emerge and facilitate naturalization worldwide.

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license.
Back to top
PreviousNext
Posted February 19, 2016.
Download PDF

Supplementary Material

Email

Thank you for your interest in spreading the word about bioRxiv.

NOTE: Your email address is requested solely to identify you as the sender of this article.

Enter multiple addresses on separate lines or separate them with commas.
An ecological assessment of the pandemic threat of Zika virus
(Your Name) has forwarded a page to you from bioRxiv
(Your Name) thought you would like to see this page from the bioRxiv website.
CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.
Share
An ecological assessment of the pandemic threat of Zika virus
Colin J. Carlson, Eric R. Dougherty, Wayne Getz
bioRxiv 040386; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/040386
Digg logo Reddit logo Twitter logo Facebook logo Google logo LinkedIn logo Mendeley logo
Citation Tools
An ecological assessment of the pandemic threat of Zika virus
Colin J. Carlson, Eric R. Dougherty, Wayne Getz
bioRxiv 040386; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/040386

Citation Manager Formats

  • BibTeX
  • Bookends
  • EasyBib
  • EndNote (tagged)
  • EndNote 8 (xml)
  • Medlars
  • Mendeley
  • Papers
  • RefWorks Tagged
  • Ref Manager
  • RIS
  • Zotero
  • Tweet Widget
  • Facebook Like
  • Google Plus One

Subject Area

  • Ecology
Subject Areas
All Articles
  • Animal Behavior and Cognition (3689)
  • Biochemistry (7796)
  • Bioengineering (5675)
  • Bioinformatics (21284)
  • Biophysics (10578)
  • Cancer Biology (8174)
  • Cell Biology (11945)
  • Clinical Trials (138)
  • Developmental Biology (6763)
  • Ecology (10401)
  • Epidemiology (2065)
  • Evolutionary Biology (13866)
  • Genetics (9708)
  • Genomics (13073)
  • Immunology (8146)
  • Microbiology (20014)
  • Molecular Biology (7853)
  • Neuroscience (43056)
  • Paleontology (319)
  • Pathology (1279)
  • Pharmacology and Toxicology (2258)
  • Physiology (3351)
  • Plant Biology (7232)
  • Scientific Communication and Education (1312)
  • Synthetic Biology (2006)
  • Systems Biology (5538)
  • Zoology (1128)