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Declaring a tuberculosis outbreak over with genomic epidemiology

Hollie-Ann Hatherell, Xavier Didelot, Sue L. Pollock, Patrick Tang, Anamaria Crisan, James C. Johnston, Caroline Colijn, Jennifer Gardy
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/040527
Hollie-Ann Hatherell
1CoMPLEX, University College London
2Research Department of Infection and Population Health, University College London
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Xavier Didelot
3Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London
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Sue L. Pollock
4Interior Health Authority
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Patrick Tang
5British Columbia Centre for Disease Control Public Health Laboratory
6Department of Pathology, Sidra Medical and Research Center
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Anamaria Crisan
7Communicable Disease Prevention and Control Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control
8School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia
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James C. Johnston
9Clinical Prevention Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control
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Caroline Colijn
10Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London
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Jennifer Gardy
7Communicable Disease Prevention and Control Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control
8School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia
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Abstract

We report an updated method for inferring the time at which an infectious disease was transmitted between persons from a time-labelled pathogen genome phylogeny. We applied the method to 48 Mycobacterium tuberculosis genomes as part of a real-time public health outbreak investigation, demonstrating that although active tuberculosis (TB) cases were diagnosed through 2013, no transmission events took place beyond mid-2012. Subsequent cases were the result of progression from latent TB infection to active disease and not recent transmission. This evolutionary genomic approach was used to declare the outbreak over in January 2015.

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The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license.
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Posted February 22, 2016.
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Declaring a tuberculosis outbreak over with genomic epidemiology
Hollie-Ann Hatherell, Xavier Didelot, Sue L. Pollock, Patrick Tang, Anamaria Crisan, James C. Johnston, Caroline Colijn, Jennifer Gardy
bioRxiv 040527; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/040527
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Declaring a tuberculosis outbreak over with genomic epidemiology
Hollie-Ann Hatherell, Xavier Didelot, Sue L. Pollock, Patrick Tang, Anamaria Crisan, James C. Johnston, Caroline Colijn, Jennifer Gardy
bioRxiv 040527; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/040527

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