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Comparative analysis of dengue and Zika outbreaks reveals differences by setting and virus

View ORCID ProfileSebastian Funk, Adam J. Kucharski, View ORCID ProfileAnton Camacho, View ORCID ProfileRosalind M. Eggo, View ORCID ProfileLaith Yakob, W. John Edmunds
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/043265
Sebastian Funk
1Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
2Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
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Adam J. Kucharski
1Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
2Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
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Anton Camacho
1Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
2Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
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Rosalind M. Eggo
1Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
2Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
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Laith Yakob
1Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
3Department for Disease Control, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
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W. John Edmunds
1Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
2Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
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Abstract

The pacific islands of Micronesia have experienced several outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases over the past decade. In outbreaks on small islands, the susceptible population is usually well defined, and there is no co-circulation of pathogens. Because of this, analysing such outbreaks can be particularly useful for improving our understanding of the transmission dynamics of the pathogens involved, and particularly so for yet understudied pathogens such as Zika virus. Here, we compared three outbreaks of dengue and Zika virus in two different island settings in Micronesia, the Yap Main Islands and Fais, using a mathematical model of transmission dynamics, making full use of commonalities in disease and setting between the outbreaks. We found that the estimated reproduction numbers for Zika and dengue are similar when considered in the same setting, but that, conversely, reproduction number for the same disease can vary considerably by setting. On the Yap Main Islands, we estimate a mean reproduction number of 4.3 (95% credible interval 3.1–6.1) for the dengue outbreak and 4.8 (2.9–8.1) for the Zika outbreak, whereas for the dengue outbreak on Fais our mean estimate is 10 (5.5–18). We further found that the ranges of most disease-specific parameters largely overlap between dengue and Zika, but that reporting rates of Zika cases are much smaller (3%, 1–7) than those of dengue (68%, 43–98). These results suggests that models for dengue transmission can be useful for estimating the predicted dynamics of Zika transmission, but care must be taken when extrapolating findings from one setting to another.

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The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license.
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Posted April 26, 2016.
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Comparative analysis of dengue and Zika outbreaks reveals differences by setting and virus
Sebastian Funk, Adam J. Kucharski, Anton Camacho, Rosalind M. Eggo, Laith Yakob, W. John Edmunds
bioRxiv 043265; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/043265
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Comparative analysis of dengue and Zika outbreaks reveals differences by setting and virus
Sebastian Funk, Adam J. Kucharski, Anton Camacho, Rosalind M. Eggo, Laith Yakob, W. John Edmunds
bioRxiv 043265; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/043265

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