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Sexual transmission causes a marked increase in the incidence of Zika in women in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

View ORCID ProfileFlávio Codeço Coelho, Betina Durovni, View ORCID ProfileValeria Saraceni, Cristina Lemos, Claudia Torres Codeço, Sabrina Camargo, Luiz Max de Carvalho, Leonardo Bastos, Denise Arduini, Daniel A.M. Villela, Margaret Armstrong
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/055459
Flávio Codeço Coelho
aFundação Getulio Vargas - Praia de Botafogo, 190, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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  • ORCID record for Flávio Codeço Coelho
Betina Durovni
bSecretaria Municipal de Saúde - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Valeria Saraceni
bSecretaria Municipal de Saúde - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Cristina Lemos
bSecretaria Municipal de Saúde - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Claudia Torres Codeço
cPrograma de Computação Científica, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Sabrina Camargo
aFundação Getulio Vargas - Praia de Botafogo, 190, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Luiz Max de Carvalho
cPrograma de Computação Científica, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
eInstitute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, UK
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Leonardo Bastos
cPrograma de Computação Científica, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Denise Arduini
bSecretaria Municipal de Saúde - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Daniel A.M. Villela
cPrograma de Computação Científica, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Margaret Armstrong
aFundação Getulio Vargas - Praia de Botafogo, 190, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
dMINES Paristech, PSL Research University, CERNA Centre for industrial economy,i3, CNRS UMR 9217, Paris France
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Abstract

The recent emergence of Zika in Brazil and its association with increased congenital malformation rates has raised concerns over its impact on the birth rates in the country. Using data on the incidence of Zika in 2015-2016 and dengue in 2013 and 2015-16 for the city of Rio de Janeiro (pop: 6.4 million), we document a massive increase of Zika in women compared to men. Even after correcting for the bias due to the systematic testing of pregnant women for Zika, there are 90% more registered cases per 100,000 women in the sexually active age group (15-65 years) than for men but not before 15 or after 65. Assuming that infected men transmit the disease to women in their semen but that the converse is not true, some extra incidence in women is to be expected. An alternate hypothesis would be that women visit doctors more often than men. To test this, we compared the incidence of dengue fever in men and women in 2015 and in 2013 (before Zika reached Rio de Janeiro): in both years, women are 30% more likely to be reported with dengue.

Summing up, women in the sexually active age bracket are far more likely to get Zika than men (+90% increase); sexual transmission is the most probable cause. Women in the 15-65 age group are also 30% more likely to be reported with dengue than men, which is probably due to women being more careful with their health.

Footnotes

  • ↵* Fundação Getulio Vargas - Praia de Botafogo, 190, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Email address: fccoelho{at}fgv.br (Flávio Codeço Coelho)

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The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
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Posted May 26, 2016.
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Sexual transmission causes a marked increase in the incidence of Zika in women in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Flávio Codeço Coelho, Betina Durovni, Valeria Saraceni, Cristina Lemos, Claudia Torres Codeço, Sabrina Camargo, Luiz Max de Carvalho, Leonardo Bastos, Denise Arduini, Daniel A.M. Villela, Margaret Armstrong
bioRxiv 055459; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/055459
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Sexual transmission causes a marked increase in the incidence of Zika in women in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Flávio Codeço Coelho, Betina Durovni, Valeria Saraceni, Cristina Lemos, Claudia Torres Codeço, Sabrina Camargo, Luiz Max de Carvalho, Leonardo Bastos, Denise Arduini, Daniel A.M. Villela, Margaret Armstrong
bioRxiv 055459; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/055459

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