Abstract
The idea of driving genetically modified alleles to fixation in a population has fascinated scientists for over 40 years1,2. Potential applications are broad and ambitious, including the eradication of disease vectors, the control of pest species, and the preservation of endangered species from extinction3. Until recently, these possibilities have remained largely abstract due to the lack of an effective drive mechanism. CRISPR/Cas9 gene drive (CGD) now promise a highly adaptable approach for driving even deleterious alleles to high population frequency, and this approach was recently shown to be effective in small laboratory populations of insects4–⇓⇓7. However, it remains unclear whether CGD will also work in large natural populations in the face of potential resistance mechanisms. Here we show that resistance against CGD will inevitably evolve unless populations are small and repair of CGD-induced cleavage via nonhomologous end joining (NHEJ) can be effectively suppressed, or resistance costs are on par with those of the driver. We specifically calculate the probability that resistance evolves from variants at the target site that are not recognized by the driver's guide RNA, either because they are already present when the driver allele is introduced, arise by de novo mutation, or are created by the driver itself when NHEJ introduces mutations at the target site. Our results shed light on strategies that could facilitate the engineering of a successful drive by lowering resistance potential, as well as strategies that could promote resistance as a possible mechanism for controlling a drive. This study highlights the need for careful modeling of CGD prior to the actual release of a driver construct into the wild.
