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A comparative analysis of Chikungunya and Zika transmission

View ORCID ProfileJulien Riou, Chiara Poletto, Pierre-Yves Boëlle
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/078923
Julien Riou
a Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), 75012 Paris, France
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  • For correspondence: julien.riou@iplesp.upmc.fr
Chiara Poletto
a Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), 75012 Paris, France
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Pierre-Yves Boëlle
a Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), 75012 Paris, France
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Abstract

The recent global dissemination of Chikungunya and Zika has fostered public health concern worldwide. To better understand the drivers of transmission of these two arboviral diseases, we propose a joint analysis of Chikungunya and Zika epidemics in the same territories, taking into account the common epidemiological features of the epidemics: transmitted by the same vector, in the same environments, and observed by the same surveillance systems. We analyse eighteen outbreaks in French Polynesia and the French West Indies using a hierarchical time-dependent SIR model accounting for the effect of virus, location and weather on transmission, and based on a disease specific serial interval. We show that Chikungunya and Zika have similar transmission potential in the same territories (transmissibility ratio between Zika and Chikungunya of 1.04 [95% credible interval: 0.97; 1.13]), but that detection and reporting rates were different (around 19% for Zika and 40% for Chikungunya). Temperature variations between 22°C and 29°C did not alter transmission, but increased precipitation showed a dual effect, first reducing transmission after a two-week delay, then increasing it around five weeks later. The present study provides valuable information for risk assessment and introduces a modelling framework for the comparative analysis of arboviral infections that can be extended to other viruses and territories.

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Posted January 29, 2017.
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A comparative analysis of Chikungunya and Zika transmission
Julien Riou, Chiara Poletto, Pierre-Yves Boëlle
bioRxiv 078923; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/078923
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A comparative analysis of Chikungunya and Zika transmission
Julien Riou, Chiara Poletto, Pierre-Yves Boëlle
bioRxiv 078923; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/078923

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