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ROLE of inter-related population-level host traits in determining pathogen richness and zoonotic risk

View ORCID ProfileTim C.D. Lucas, Hilde M. Wilkinson-Herbots, View ORCID ProfileKate E. Jones
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/123067
Tim C.D. Lucas
1Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom. 0000-0003-4694-8107
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  • For correspondence: timcdlucas@gmail.com kate.e.jones@ucl.ac.uk
Hilde M. Wilkinson-Herbots
2Department of Statistical Science, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom.
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Kate E. Jones
3Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom and Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent’s Park, London, NW1 4RY, United Kingdom. 0000-0001-5231-3293
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  • For correspondence: timcdlucas@gmail.com kate.e.jones@ucl.ac.uk
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Abstract

Zoonotic diseases are an increasingly important source of human infectious diseases, and host pathogen richness of reservoir host species is a critical driver of spill-over risk. Population-level traits of hosts such as population size, host density and geographic range size have all been shown to be important determinants of host pathogen richness. However, empirically identifying the independent influences of these traits has proven difficult as many of these traits directly depend on each other. Here we develop a mechanistic, metapopulation, susceptible-infected-recovered model to identify the independent influences of these population-level traits on the ability of a newly evolved pathogen to invade and persist in host populations in the presence of an endemic pathogen. We use bats as a case study as they are highly social and an important source of zoonotic disease. We show that larger populations and group sizes had a greater influence on the chances of pathogen invasion and persistence than increased host density or the number of groups. As anthropogenic change affects these traits to different extents, this increased understanding of how traits independently determine pathogen richness will aid in predicting future zoonotic spill-over risk.

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Posted April 02, 2017.
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ROLE of inter-related population-level host traits in determining pathogen richness and zoonotic risk
Tim C.D. Lucas, Hilde M. Wilkinson-Herbots, Kate E. Jones
bioRxiv 123067; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/123067
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ROLE of inter-related population-level host traits in determining pathogen richness and zoonotic risk
Tim C.D. Lucas, Hilde M. Wilkinson-Herbots, Kate E. Jones
bioRxiv 123067; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/123067

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