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On the relative role of different age groups during influenza A epidemics in Germany, 2002-2017

Edward Goldstein
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/147066
Edward Goldstein
1 London, UK
2 Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard University, Boston MA 02115, USA
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  • For correspondence: egoldste@hsph.harvard.edu
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Abstract

Background There is limited information about the role of different age groups, particularly subgroups of school-age children and younger adults in propagating influenza epidemics.

Methods For a communicable disease outbreak, some subpopulations may play a disproportionate role during the ascent of the outbreak due to increased susceptibility and/or contact rates. Such subpopulations can be identified by considering the proportion that cases in a subpopulation represent among all cases in the population occurring before the epidemic peak (Bp), the corresponding proportion after the epidemic peak (Ap), to calculate the relative risk for a subpopulation, RR=Bp/Ap. We estimated RR for several age groups using data on reported influenza A cases in Germany between 2002-2017.

Results Children aged 14-17y had the highest RR estimates for 7 out of 15 influenza A epidemics in the data, including the 2009 pandemic, and the large 2016/17, 2008/09, and 2006/07 seasons. Children aged 10-13y had the highest RR estimates during 3 epidemics, including the large 2014/15 and 2004/05 seasons. Children aged 6-9y had the highest RR estimates during two epidemics, including the large 2012/13 season. Children aged 2-5y had the highest RR estimate during the moderate 2015/16 season; adults aged 18-24y had the highest RR estimate during the small 2005/06 season; adults aged 25-34y had the highest RR estimate during the large, 2002/03 season.

Conclusions Our results support the prominent role of all school-age children, particularly the oldest ones, in propagating influenza epidemics in the community. We note that national vaccination coverage levels among older school-age children were lower than among younger school-age children during the recent influenza seasons in the US, and influenza vaccination program in England has not been phased in yet for secondary school students.

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The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license.
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Posted June 14, 2017.
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On the relative role of different age groups during influenza A epidemics in Germany, 2002-2017
Edward Goldstein
bioRxiv 147066; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/147066
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On the relative role of different age groups during influenza A epidemics in Germany, 2002-2017
Edward Goldstein
bioRxiv 147066; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/147066

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