Skip to main content
bioRxiv
  • Home
  • About
  • Submit
  • ALERTS / RSS
Advanced Search
New Results

Preliminary results of models to predict areas in the Americas with increased likelihood of Zika virus transmission in 2017

The ZIKAVAT Collaboration, Jason Asher, Christopher Barker, Grace Chen, Derek Cummings, Matteo Chinazzi, Shelby Daniel-Wayman, Marc Fischer, Neil Ferguson, Dean Follman, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Michael Johansson, Kiersten Kugeler, Jennifer Kwan, Justin Lessler, Ira M. Longini, Stefano Merler, Andrew Monaghan, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Alex Perkins, D. Rebecca Prevots, Robert Reiner, Luca Rossi, Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer, Amir S. Siraj, Kaiyuan Sun, Alessandro Vespignani, Qian Zhang
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/187591
1Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC, USA
Jason Asher
1Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC, USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Christopher Barker
2University of California, Davis, California, USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Grace Chen
3National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD,USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Derek Cummings
4Johns Hopkins, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
5University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Matteo Chinazzi
6Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Shelby Daniel-Wayman
3National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD,USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Marc Fischer
7Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado and San Juan, Puerto Rico, USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Neil Ferguson
8Imperial College, London, UK
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Dean Follman
3National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD,USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
M. Elizabeth Halloran
9Fred Hutchinson Center, Seattle,WA, USA
10University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Michael Johansson
7Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado and San Juan, Puerto Rico, USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Kiersten Kugeler
7Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado and San Juan, Puerto Rico, USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Jennifer Kwan
3National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD,USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Justin Lessler
4Johns Hopkins, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Ira M. Longini
5University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Stefano Merler
11Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Andrew Monaghan
12National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Ana Pastore y Piontti
6Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Alex Perkins
13University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
D. Rebecca Prevots
3National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD,USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Robert Reiner
10University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Luca Rossi
14Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, Turin, Italy
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer
4Johns Hopkins, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
15University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Amir S. Siraj
13University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Kaiyuan Sun
6Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Alessandro Vespignani
6Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Qian Zhang
6Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • Abstract
  • Full Text
  • Info/History
  • Metrics
  • Preview PDF
Loading

Abstract

Numerous Zika virus vaccines are being developed. However, identifying sites to evaluate the efficacy of a Zika virus vaccine is challenging due to the general decrease in Zika virus activity. We compare results from three different modeling approaches to estimate areas that may have increased relative risk of Zika virus transmission during 2017. The analysis focused on eight priority countries (i.e., Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, and Peru). The models projected low incidence rates during 2017 for all locations in the priority countries but identified several subnational areas that may have increased relative risk of Zika virus transmission in 2017. Given the projected low incidence of disease, the total number of participants, number of study sites, or duration of study follow-up may need to be increased to meet the efficacy study endpoints.

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
Back to top
PreviousNext
Posted September 29, 2017.
Download PDF
Email

Thank you for your interest in spreading the word about bioRxiv.

NOTE: Your email address is requested solely to identify you as the sender of this article.

Enter multiple addresses on separate lines or separate them with commas.
Preliminary results of models to predict areas in the Americas with increased likelihood of Zika virus transmission in 2017
(Your Name) has forwarded a page to you from bioRxiv
(Your Name) thought you would like to see this page from the bioRxiv website.
CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.
Share
Preliminary results of models to predict areas in the Americas with increased likelihood of Zika virus transmission in 2017
The ZIKAVAT Collaboration, Jason Asher, Christopher Barker, Grace Chen, Derek Cummings, Matteo Chinazzi, Shelby Daniel-Wayman, Marc Fischer, Neil Ferguson, Dean Follman, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Michael Johansson, Kiersten Kugeler, Jennifer Kwan, Justin Lessler, Ira M. Longini, Stefano Merler, Andrew Monaghan, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Alex Perkins, D. Rebecca Prevots, Robert Reiner, Luca Rossi, Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer, Amir S. Siraj, Kaiyuan Sun, Alessandro Vespignani, Qian Zhang
bioRxiv 187591; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/187591
Digg logo Reddit logo Twitter logo Facebook logo Google logo LinkedIn logo Mendeley logo
Citation Tools
Preliminary results of models to predict areas in the Americas with increased likelihood of Zika virus transmission in 2017
The ZIKAVAT Collaboration, Jason Asher, Christopher Barker, Grace Chen, Derek Cummings, Matteo Chinazzi, Shelby Daniel-Wayman, Marc Fischer, Neil Ferguson, Dean Follman, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Michael Johansson, Kiersten Kugeler, Jennifer Kwan, Justin Lessler, Ira M. Longini, Stefano Merler, Andrew Monaghan, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Alex Perkins, D. Rebecca Prevots, Robert Reiner, Luca Rossi, Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer, Amir S. Siraj, Kaiyuan Sun, Alessandro Vespignani, Qian Zhang
bioRxiv 187591; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/187591

Citation Manager Formats

  • BibTeX
  • Bookends
  • EasyBib
  • EndNote (tagged)
  • EndNote 8 (xml)
  • Medlars
  • Mendeley
  • Papers
  • RefWorks Tagged
  • Ref Manager
  • RIS
  • Zotero
  • Tweet Widget
  • Facebook Like
  • Google Plus One

Subject Area

  • Epidemiology
Subject Areas
All Articles
  • Animal Behavior and Cognition (3691)
  • Biochemistry (7800)
  • Bioengineering (5678)
  • Bioinformatics (21295)
  • Biophysics (10584)
  • Cancer Biology (8179)
  • Cell Biology (11948)
  • Clinical Trials (138)
  • Developmental Biology (6764)
  • Ecology (10401)
  • Epidemiology (2065)
  • Evolutionary Biology (13876)
  • Genetics (9709)
  • Genomics (13075)
  • Immunology (8151)
  • Microbiology (20022)
  • Molecular Biology (7859)
  • Neuroscience (43075)
  • Paleontology (321)
  • Pathology (1279)
  • Pharmacology and Toxicology (2261)
  • Physiology (3353)
  • Plant Biology (7232)
  • Scientific Communication and Education (1314)
  • Synthetic Biology (2008)
  • Systems Biology (5539)
  • Zoology (1128)