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Global analysis reveals complex demographic responses of mammals to climate change

View ORCID ProfileMaria Paniw, View ORCID ProfileTamora James, C. Ruth Archer, View ORCID ProfileGesa Römer, View ORCID ProfileSam Levin, View ORCID ProfileAldo Compagnoni, View ORCID ProfileJudy Che-Castaldo, Joanne M. Bennett, Andrew Mooney, View ORCID ProfileDylan Z. Childs, View ORCID ProfileArpat Ozgul, View ORCID ProfileOwen R. Jones, View ORCID ProfileJean H. Burns, View ORCID ProfileAndrew P. Beckerman, Abir Patwary, Nora Sanchez-Gassen, View ORCID ProfileTiffany M. Knight, View ORCID ProfileRoberto Salguero-Gómez
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2019.12.16.878348
Maria Paniw
1Ecological and Forestry Applications Research Centre (CREAF), Campus de Bellaterra (UAB) Edifici C, ES-08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
2Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057 Zurich, Switzerland
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  • For correspondence: m.paniw@gmail.com
Tamora James
3Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield. Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK
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C. Ruth Archer
4Institute of Evolutionary Ecology and Conservation Genomics, University of Ulm, Albert-Einstein-Allee 11, 89081, Ulm, Germany
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Gesa Römer
5Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics (CPop), University of Southern Denmark. Odense, Denmark
6Department of Biology, University of Southern Denmark. Campusvej 55, 5230 Odense M, Denmark
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Sam Levin
7Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1, 06108, Halle (Saale), Germany
8German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
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Aldo Compagnoni
7Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1, 06108, Halle (Saale), Germany
8German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
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Judy Che-Castaldo
9Alexander Center for Applied Population Biology, Conservation & Science Department, Lincoln Park Zoo, Chicago, IL 60614-4712 USA
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Joanne M. Bennett
7Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1, 06108, Halle (Saale), Germany
8German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
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Andrew Mooney
10School of Natural Sciences, Zoology, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland
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Dylan Z. Childs
3Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield. Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK
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Arpat Ozgul
2Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057 Zurich, Switzerland
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Owen R. Jones
5Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics (CPop), University of Southern Denmark. Odense, Denmark
6Department of Biology, University of Southern Denmark. Campusvej 55, 5230 Odense M, Denmark
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Jean H. Burns
11Department of Biology, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio, USA
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Andrew P. Beckerman
3Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield. Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK
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Abir Patwary
3Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield. Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK
12Department of Zoology, University of Oxford. 11a Mansfield Road, Oxford, OX1 3SZ, United Kingdom
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Nora Sanchez-Gassen
13Nordregio, Holmamiralens Väg 10, 11149 Stockholm, Schweden
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Tiffany M. Knight
7Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1, 06108, Halle (Saale), Germany
8German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
14Department of Community Ecology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Theodor-Lieser-Straße 4, 06120 Halle(Saale), Germany
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Roberto Salguero-Gómez
12Department of Zoology, University of Oxford. 11a Mansfield Road, Oxford, OX1 3SZ, United Kingdom
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ABSTRACT

Approximately 25 % of mammals are threatened globally with extinction, a risk that is amplified under climate change1. Persistence under climate change is determined by the combined effects of climatic factors on multiple demographic rates (survival, development, reproduction), and hence, on population dynamics2. Thus, to quantify which species and places on Earth are most vulnerable to climate-driven extinction, a global understanding of how demographic rates respond to climate is needed3. We synthesise information on such responses in terrestrial mammals, where extensive demographic data are available4. Given the importance of assessing the full spectrum of responses, we focus on studies that quantitatively link climate to multiple demographic rates. We identify 106 such studies, corresponding to 86 mammal species. We reveal a strong mismatch between the locations of demographic studies and the regions and taxa currently recognised as most vulnerable to climate change5,6. Moreover, we show that the effects of climate change on mammals will operate via complex demographic mechanisms: a vast majority of mammal populations display projected increases in some demographic rates but declines in others. Assessments of population viability under climate change therefore need to account for multiple demographic responses. We advocate to prioritise coordinated actions to assess mammal demography holistically for effective conservation worldwide.

Footnotes

  • ↵§ Shared senior co-authorship

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The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
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Posted December 17, 2019.
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Global analysis reveals complex demographic responses of mammals to climate change
Maria Paniw, Tamora James, C. Ruth Archer, Gesa Römer, Sam Levin, Aldo Compagnoni, Judy Che-Castaldo, Joanne M. Bennett, Andrew Mooney, Dylan Z. Childs, Arpat Ozgul, Owen R. Jones, Jean H. Burns, Andrew P. Beckerman, Abir Patwary, Nora Sanchez-Gassen, Tiffany M. Knight, Roberto Salguero-Gómez
bioRxiv 2019.12.16.878348; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2019.12.16.878348
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Global analysis reveals complex demographic responses of mammals to climate change
Maria Paniw, Tamora James, C. Ruth Archer, Gesa Römer, Sam Levin, Aldo Compagnoni, Judy Che-Castaldo, Joanne M. Bennett, Andrew Mooney, Dylan Z. Childs, Arpat Ozgul, Owen R. Jones, Jean H. Burns, Andrew P. Beckerman, Abir Patwary, Nora Sanchez-Gassen, Tiffany M. Knight, Roberto Salguero-Gómez
bioRxiv 2019.12.16.878348; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2019.12.16.878348

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