Abstract
Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) which capture a significant impact on a trait can be identified with genome-wide association studies. High linkage disequilibrium (LD) among SNPs makes it difficult to identify causative variants correctly. Thus, often target regions instead of single SNPs are reported. Sample size has not only a crucial impact on the precision of parameter estimates, it also ensures that a desired level of statistical power can be reached. We study the design of experiments for fine-mapping of signals of a quantitative trait locus in such a target region.
A multi-locus model allows to identify causative variants simultaneously, to state their positions more precisely and to account for existing dependencies. Based on the commonly applied SNP-BLUP approach, we determine the z-score statistic for locally testing non-zero SNP effects and investigate its distribution under the alternative hypothesis. This quantity employs the theoretical instead of observed dependence between SNPs; it can be set up as a function of paternal and maternal LD for any given population structure.
We simulated multiple paternal half-sib families and considered a target region of 1 Mbp. A bimodal distribution of estimated sample size was observed, particularly if more than two causative variants were assumed. The median of estimates constituted the final proposal of optimal sample size; it was consistently less than sample size estimated from single-SNP investigations which was used as a baseline approach. The second mode pointed to inflated sample sizes and could be explained by blocks of varying linkage phases leading to negative correlations between SNPs. Optimal sample size increased almost linearly with number of signals to be identified but depended much stronger on the assumption on heritability. For instance, three times as many samples were required if heritability was 0.1 compared to 0.3. These results enable the resource-saving design of future experiments for fine-mapping of candidate variants in structured and unstructured populations.
