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A mathematical model for simulating the transmission of Wuhan novel Coronavirus

Tianmu Chen, Jia Rui, Qiupeng Wang, Zeyu Zhao, Jing-An Cui, Ling Yin
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.19.911669
Tianmu Chen
1State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City 361102, Fujian Province, People’s Republic of China
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  • For correspondence: 13698665@qq.com
Jia Rui
1State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City 361102, Fujian Province, People’s Republic of China
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Qiupeng Wang
1State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City 361102, Fujian Province, People’s Republic of China
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Zeyu Zhao
1State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City 361102, Fujian Province, People’s Republic of China
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Jing-An Cui
2Department of Mathematics, School of Science, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 102616, People’s Republic of China
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Ling Yin
3Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen City 518055, Guangdong Province, People’s Republic of China
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Abstract

As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probable be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from a seafood market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People transmission network model. The basic reproduction number (R0) was calculated from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the 2019-nCoV.

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The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
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Posted January 19, 2020.
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A mathematical model for simulating the transmission of Wuhan novel Coronavirus
Tianmu Chen, Jia Rui, Qiupeng Wang, Zeyu Zhao, Jing-An Cui, Ling Yin
bioRxiv 2020.01.19.911669; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.19.911669
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A mathematical model for simulating the transmission of Wuhan novel Coronavirus
Tianmu Chen, Jia Rui, Qiupeng Wang, Zeyu Zhao, Jing-An Cui, Ling Yin
bioRxiv 2020.01.19.911669; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.19.911669

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