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Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak

View ORCID ProfileShi Zhao, Jinjun Ran, Salihu S Musa, Guangpu Yang, Yijun Lou, Daozhou Gao, Lin Yang, View ORCID ProfileDaihai He
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395
Shi Zhao
1JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
2Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
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  • ORCID record for Shi Zhao
  • For correspondence: zhaoshi.cmsa@gmail.com daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk
Jinjun Ran
3School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
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Salihu S Musa
4Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
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Guangpu Yang
5Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
6SH Ho Scoliosis Research Lab, Joint Scoliosis Research Center of Chinese University of Hong Kong and Nanjing University, Hong Kong, China
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Yijun Lou
4Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
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Daozhou Gao
7Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China
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Lin Yang
8School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
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Daihai He
4Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
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  • ORCID record for Daihai He
  • For correspondence: zhaoshi.cmsa@gmail.com daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk
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Abstract

Backgrounds There has been a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia outbreak in China since December 2019, and which spreads internationally. This is the first study to quantify the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak.

Methods Accounting for the impact of the variations in disease reporting rate, we modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases time series, in mainland China from January 10 to January 21, 2020, through the exponential growth. With the estimated intrinsic growth rate (γ), we estimated R0 by using the serial intervals (SI) of two other well-known coronavirus diseases, MERS and SARS, as approximations for the true unknown SI.

Findings The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R0 ranges from 3.30 (95%CI: 2.73-3.96) to 5.47 (95%CI: 4.16-7.10) associated with 0-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. With rising report rate, the mean R0 is likely to be below 5 but above 3.

Conclusion The mean estimate of R0 for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 3.30 (95%CI: 2.73-3.96) to 5.47 (95%CI: 4.16-7.10), and significantly larger than 1. Our findings indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks.

Footnotes

  • Email address of all authors SZ: zhaoshi.cmsa{at}gmail.com, JR: jimran{at}connect.hku.hk, SSM: salihu-sabiu.musa{at}connect.polyu.hk, GY: kennethgpy{at}link.cuhk.edu.hk, DG: dzgao{at}shnu.edu.cn, YL: yijun.lou{at}polyu.edu.hk, LY: l.yang{at}polyu.edu.hk, DH: daihai.he{at}polyu.edu.hk

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
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Posted January 24, 2020.
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Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak
Shi Zhao, Jinjun Ran, Salihu S Musa, Guangpu Yang, Yijun Lou, Daozhou Gao, Lin Yang, Daihai He
bioRxiv 2020.01.23.916395; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395
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Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak
Shi Zhao, Jinjun Ran, Salihu S Musa, Guangpu Yang, Yijun Lou, Daozhou Gao, Lin Yang, Daihai He
bioRxiv 2020.01.23.916395; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395

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