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Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak

View ORCID ProfileShi Zhao, Qianyin Lin, Jinjun Ran, Salihu S Musa, Guangpu Yang, Weiming Wang, Yijun Lou, Daozhou Gao, Lin Yang, View ORCID ProfileDaihai He, Maggie H Wang
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395
Shi Zhao
1JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
2Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
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  • ORCID record for Shi Zhao
  • For correspondence: zhaoshi.cmsa@gmail.com daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk
Qianyin Lin
3Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
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Jinjun Ran
4School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
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Salihu S Musa
5Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
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Guangpu Yang
6Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
7SH Ho Scoliosis Research Lab, Joint Scoliosis Research Center of Chinese University of Hong Kong and Nanjing University, Hong Kong, China
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Weiming Wang
8School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian, China
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Yijun Lou
4School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
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Daozhou Gao
9Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China
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Lin Yang
10School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
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Daihai He
5Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
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  • For correspondence: zhaoshi.cmsa@gmail.com daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk
Maggie H Wang
1JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
2Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
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Abstract

Backgrounds An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia hit a major city of China, Wuhan, December 2019 and subsequently reached other provinces/regions of China and countries. We present estimates of the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak.

Methods Accounting for the impact of the variations in disease reporting rate, we modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases time series, in mainland China from January 10 to January 24, 2020, through the exponential growth. With the estimated intrinsic growth rate (γ), we estimated R0 by using the serial intervals (SI) of two other well-known coronavirus diseases, MERS and SARS, as approximations for the true unknown SI.

Findings The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R0 ranges from 2.24 (95%CI: 1.96-2.55) to 3.58 (95%CI: 2.89-4.39) associated with 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. We demonstrated that changes in reporting rate substantially affect estimates of R0.

Conclusion The mean estimate of R0 for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 2.24 to 3.58, and significantly larger than 1. Our findings indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks.

Footnotes

  • Email address of all authors, SZ: zhaoshi.cmsa{at}gmail.com, QL: qianying.lin{at}connect.polyu.hk, JR: jimran{at}connect.hku.hk, SSM: salihu-sabiu.musa{at}connect.polyu.hk, GY: kennethgpy{at}link.cuhk.edu.hk, WW: weimingwang2003{at}163.com, YL: yijun.lou{at}polyu.edu.hk, DG: dzgao{at}shnu.edu.cn, LY: l.yang{at}polyu.edu.hk, DH: daihai.he{at}polyu.edu.hk, MHW: maggiew{at}cuhk.edu.hk

  • We updated the results by including more recent data under more reasonable modelling settings. The updated main results are that the mean estimate of R0 for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 2.24 to 3.58

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
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Posted January 29, 2020.
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Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak
Shi Zhao, Qianyin Lin, Jinjun Ran, Salihu S Musa, Guangpu Yang, Weiming Wang, Yijun Lou, Daozhou Gao, Lin Yang, Daihai He, Maggie H Wang
bioRxiv 2020.01.23.916395; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395
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Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak
Shi Zhao, Qianyin Lin, Jinjun Ran, Salihu S Musa, Guangpu Yang, Weiming Wang, Yijun Lou, Daozhou Gao, Lin Yang, Daihai He, Maggie H Wang
bioRxiv 2020.01.23.916395; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395

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