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Modelling the epidemic trend of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in China

Mingwang Shen, Zhihang Peng, Yanni Xiao, Lei Zhang
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.916726
Mingwang Shen
1China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi’an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi’an, Shaanxi, 710061, PR China
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Zhihang Peng
2Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210029, PR China
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Yanni Xiao
3School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, Shaanxi, 710049, PR China
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  • For correspondence: lei.zhang1@xjtu.edu.cn yxiao@mail.xjtu.edu.cn
Lei Zhang
1China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi’an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi’an, Shaanxi, 710061, PR China
4Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne, Australia
5Central Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
6Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, Henan, China
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  • For correspondence: lei.zhang1@xjtu.edu.cn yxiao@mail.xjtu.edu.cn
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Abstract

We present a timely evaluation of the Chinese 2019-nCov epidemic in its initial phase, where 2019-nCov demonstrates comparable transmissibility but lower fatality rates than SARS and MERS. A quick diagnosis that leads to case isolation and integrated interventions will have a major impact on its future trend. Nevertheless, as China is facing its Spring Festival travel rush and the epidemic has spread beyond its borders, further investigation on its potential spatiotemporal transmission pattern and novel intervention strategies are warranted.

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The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
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Posted January 25, 2020.
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Modelling the epidemic trend of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in China
Mingwang Shen, Zhihang Peng, Yanni Xiao, Lei Zhang
bioRxiv 2020.01.23.916726; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.916726
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Modelling the epidemic trend of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in China
Mingwang Shen, Zhihang Peng, Yanni Xiao, Lei Zhang
bioRxiv 2020.01.23.916726; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.916726

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