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Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019-nCoV

View ORCID ProfileJulien Riou, View ORCID ProfileChristian L. Althaus
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.917351
Julien Riou
1Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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Christian L. Althaus
1Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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  • For correspondence: christian.althaus@alumni.ethz.ch
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ABSTRACT

On December 31, 2019, the World Health Organization was notified about a cluster of pneumonia of unknown aetiology in the city of Wuhan, China. Chinese authorities later identified a new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) as the causative agent of the outbreak. As of January 23, 2020, 655 cases have been confirmed in China and several other countries. Understanding the transmission characteristics and the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission of 2019-nCoV is critically important for coordinating current screening and containment strategies, and determining whether the outbreak constitutes a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). We performed stochastic simulations of early outbreak trajectories that are consistent with the epidemiological findings to date. We found the basic reproduction number, R0, to be around 2.2 (90% high density interval 1.4—3.8), indicating the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. Transmission characteristics appear to be of a similar magnitude to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and the 1918 pandemic influenza. These findings underline the importance of heightened screening, surveillance and control efforts, particularly at airports and other travel hubs, in order to prevent further international spread of 2019-nCoV.

Footnotes

  • julien.riou{at}ispm.unibe.ch

  • https://github.com/jriou/wcov

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license.
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Posted January 24, 2020.
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Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019-nCoV
Julien Riou, Christian L. Althaus
bioRxiv 2020.01.23.917351; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.917351
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Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019-nCoV
Julien Riou, Christian L. Althaus
bioRxiv 2020.01.23.917351; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.917351

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