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From SARS-CoV to Wuhan 2019-nCoV: Will History Repeat Itself?

Zeliang Chen, Wenjun Zhang, Yi Lu, Cheng Guo, Zhongmin Guo, Conghui Liao, Xi Zhang, Yi Zhang, Xiaohu Han, Qianlin Li, W. Ian Lipkin, Jiahai Lu
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.24.919241
Zeliang Chen
1 School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University;
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  • For correspondence: zeliangchen@yahoo.com
Wenjun Zhang
2 School of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University;
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  • For correspondence: zhwj@mail.sysu.edu.cn
Yi Lu
3 School of Public Health, Boston University;
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  • For correspondence: yilu_420@hotmail.com
Cheng Guo
4 Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University;
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  • For correspondence: cg2984@cumc.columbia.edu
Zhongmin Guo
5 Sun Yat-sen University;
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Conghui Liao
5 Sun Yat-sen University;
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  • For correspondence: liaoch3@mail2.sysu.edu.cn
Xi Zhang
6 Shenyang Agricultural University;
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  • For correspondence: zhangxizoe@163.com
Yi Zhang
6 Shenyang Agricultural University;
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  • For correspondence: 2005500042@syau.edu.cn
Xiaohu Han
6 Shenyang Agricultural University;
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  • For correspondence: hxh8849@163.com
Qianlin Li
5 Sun Yat-sen University;
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  • For correspondence: moonfesta@126.com
W. Ian Lipkin
7 Columbia University;
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Jiahai Lu
8 Sun Yat-Sen University
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  • For correspondence: lujiahai@mail.sysu.edu.cn
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Abstract

The ongoing large-scale pneumonia outbreak in China is caused by the 2019-nCoV, a new coronavirus highly similar to SARS-CoV in the SARS outbreak. The cause and consequence of the outbreak remain largely unknown as it is still in its early stage. As many aspects of the new virus are similar to SARS in 2003, knowledge, patterns and lessons of the SARS-CoV outbreak are valuable resources for responding to the Wuhan 2019-nCoV outbreak. Using epidemiological surveys and analyses from the early stage of the SARS outbreak, we assessed and compared the characteristics of those two outbreaks and predicted the possible outcome for the current 2019-nCoV outbreak. Like the SARS-CoV, the 2019-nCoV has a high human-to-human transmission capability and healthcare workers and family members are high risk populations. Because the early outbreak stage coincides with the Chinese spring festival travel rush, it is a challenge to prevent and control the spread of the virus. In this situation, the emergence and movement of a 2019-nCoV super-spreader is difficult to identify. Using the reported case data so far (as of Jan 23, 2019), a logistic model was built and the cumulative and daily counts of the 2019-nCoV cases were predicted. The cumulative counts of 2019-nCoV cases was estimated about 2-3 times the total number of SARS, and the peak incidence is predicted to be in early or middle February. Regional migration should be limited or prohibited to prevent emergence and movement of a super-spreader. There is an urgent need to establish enhanced surveillance and implement efficient measures nationwide to control this epidemic.

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Posted January 25, 2020.
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From SARS-CoV to Wuhan 2019-nCoV: Will History Repeat Itself?
Zeliang Chen, Wenjun Zhang, Yi Lu, Cheng Guo, Zhongmin Guo, Conghui Liao, Xi Zhang, Yi Zhang, Xiaohu Han, Qianlin Li, W. Ian Lipkin, Jiahai Lu
bioRxiv 2020.01.24.919241; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.24.919241
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From SARS-CoV to Wuhan 2019-nCoV: Will History Repeat Itself?
Zeliang Chen, Wenjun Zhang, Yi Lu, Cheng Guo, Zhongmin Guo, Conghui Liao, Xi Zhang, Yi Zhang, Xiaohu Han, Qianlin Li, W. Ian Lipkin, Jiahai Lu
bioRxiv 2020.01.24.919241; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.24.919241

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