Abstract
The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) have emerged from Wuhan, China. Studying the epidemic dynamics is crucial for further surveillance and control of the outbreak. We employed a Bayesian framework to infer the time-calibrated phylogeny and the epidemic dynamics represented by the effective reproductive number (Re) changing over time from the genomic sequences available from GISAID. The origin time is estimated to be December 17, 2019 (95% CI: December 5, 2019 – December 23, 2019). The median estimate of Re ranges from 0.2 to 2.2 and changes drastically over time. This study provides an early insight of the 2019-nCoV epidemic.
Copyright
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
Posted January 27, 2020.
