Skip to main content
bioRxiv
  • Home
  • About
  • Submit
  • ALERTS / RSS
Advanced Search
New Results

Transmission dynamics of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

Tao Liu, Jianxiong Hu, Min Kang, Lifeng Lin, Haojie Zhong, Jianpeng Xiao, Guanhao He, Tie Song, Qiong Huang, Zuhua Rong, Aiping Deng, Weilin Zeng, Xiaohua Tan, Siqing Zeng, Zhihua Zhu, Jiansen Li, Donghua Wan, Jing Lu, Huihong Deng, Jianfeng He, Wenjun Ma
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.25.919787
Tao Liu
Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public HealthGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Jianxiong Hu
Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public HealthGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • For correspondence: 1460035443@qq.com mawj@gdiph.org.cn
Min Kang
Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Lifeng Lin
Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Haojie Zhong
Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Jianpeng Xiao
Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public HealthGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Guanhao He
Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public HealthGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Tie Song
Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Qiong Huang
Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Zuhua Rong
Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public HealthGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Aiping Deng
Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Weilin Zeng
Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public HealthGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Xiaohua Tan
Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Siqing Zeng
Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public HealthGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Zhihua Zhu
Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public HealthGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Jiansen Li
Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Donghua Wan
Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public HealthGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Jing Lu
Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public HealthGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Huihong Deng
Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Jianfeng He
Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Wenjun Ma
Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public HealthGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • For correspondence: 1460035443@qq.com mawj@gdiph.org.cn
  • Abstract
  • Full Text
  • Info/History
  • Metrics
  • Supplementary material
  • Preview PDF
Loading

Summary

Background Since December 29, 2019, pneumonia infection with 2019-nCoV has rapidly spread out from Wuhan, Hubei Province, China to most others provinces and other counties. However, the transmission dynamics of 2019-nCoV remain unclear.

Methods Data of confirmed 2019-nCoV cases before January 23, 2020 were collected from medical records, epidemiological investigations or official websites. Data of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) cases in Guangdong Province during 2002-2003 were obtained from Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (GDCDC). Exponential Growth (EG) and maximum likelihood estimation (ML) were applied to estimate the reproductive number (R) of 2019-nCoV and SARS.

Findings As of January 23, 2020, a total of 830 confirmed 2019-nCoV cases were identified across China, and 9 cases were reported overseas. The average incubation duration of 2019-nCoV infection was 4.8days. The average period from onset of symptoms to isolation of 2019-nCoV and SARS cases were 2.9 and 4.2 days, respectively. The R values of 2019-nCoV were 2.90 (95%CI: 2.32-3.63) and 2.92 (95%CI: 2.28-3.67) estimated using EG and ML respectively, while the corresponding R values of SARS-CoV were 1.77 (95%CI: 1.37-2.27) and 1.85 (95%CI: 1.32-2.49). We observe a decreasing trend of the period from onset to isolation and R values of both 2019-nCoV and SARS-CoV.

Interpretation The 2019-nCoV may have a higher pandemic risk than SARS broken out in 2003. The implemented public-health efforts have significantly decreased the pandemic risk of 2019-nCoV. However, more rigorous control and prevention strategies and measures to contain its further spread.

Funding National Key Research and Development Program of China, Science and Technology Program of Guangdong Province, and Guangzhou Science and technology Plan Project.

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.
Back to top
PreviousNext
Posted January 26, 2020.
Download PDF

Supplementary Material

Email

Thank you for your interest in spreading the word about bioRxiv.

NOTE: Your email address is requested solely to identify you as the sender of this article.

Enter multiple addresses on separate lines or separate them with commas.
Transmission dynamics of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
(Your Name) has forwarded a page to you from bioRxiv
(Your Name) thought you would like to see this page from the bioRxiv website.
Share
Transmission dynamics of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
Tao Liu, Jianxiong Hu, Min Kang, Lifeng Lin, Haojie Zhong, Jianpeng Xiao, Guanhao He, Tie Song, Qiong Huang, Zuhua Rong, Aiping Deng, Weilin Zeng, Xiaohua Tan, Siqing Zeng, Zhihua Zhu, Jiansen Li, Donghua Wan, Jing Lu, Huihong Deng, Jianfeng He, Wenjun Ma
bioRxiv 2020.01.25.919787; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.25.919787
Digg logo Reddit logo Twitter logo CiteULike logo Facebook logo Google logo Mendeley logo
Citation Tools
Transmission dynamics of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
Tao Liu, Jianxiong Hu, Min Kang, Lifeng Lin, Haojie Zhong, Jianpeng Xiao, Guanhao He, Tie Song, Qiong Huang, Zuhua Rong, Aiping Deng, Weilin Zeng, Xiaohua Tan, Siqing Zeng, Zhihua Zhu, Jiansen Li, Donghua Wan, Jing Lu, Huihong Deng, Jianfeng He, Wenjun Ma
bioRxiv 2020.01.25.919787; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.25.919787

Citation Manager Formats

  • BibTeX
  • Bookends
  • EasyBib
  • EndNote (tagged)
  • EndNote 8 (xml)
  • Medlars
  • Mendeley
  • Papers
  • RefWorks Tagged
  • Ref Manager
  • RIS
  • Zotero
  • Tweet Widget
  • Facebook Like
  • Google Plus One

Subject Area

  • Systems Biology
Subject Areas
All Articles
  • Animal Behavior and Cognition (1643)
  • Biochemistry (2734)
  • Bioengineering (1907)
  • Bioinformatics (10231)
  • Biophysics (4179)
  • Cancer Biology (3215)
  • Cell Biology (4531)
  • Clinical Trials (135)
  • Developmental Biology (2837)
  • Ecology (4454)
  • Epidemiology (2041)
  • Evolutionary Biology (7225)
  • Genetics (5471)
  • Genomics (6810)
  • Immunology (2386)
  • Microbiology (7474)
  • Molecular Biology (2987)
  • Neuroscience (18569)
  • Paleontology (135)
  • Pathology (472)
  • Pharmacology and Toxicology (777)
  • Physiology (1148)
  • Plant Biology (2701)
  • Scientific Communication and Education (680)
  • Synthetic Biology (888)
  • Systems Biology (2843)
  • Zoology (465)