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Beware of asymptomatic transmission: Study on 2019-nCoV prevention and control measures based on extended SEIR model

View ORCID ProfilePeng Shao, Yingji Shan
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.28.923169
Peng Shao
1School of Management, Xi’an Polytechnic University, Xi’an 710048, China
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  • ORCID record for Peng Shao
Yingji Shan
2School of Finance and Economics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China
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  • For correspondence: 13572237400@126.com
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Summary

Background The 2019 new coronavirus, “2019-nCoV”, was discovered from Wuhan Viral Pneumonia cases in December 2019, and was named by the World Health Organization on January 12, 2020. In the early stage, people knows little about the 2019-nCoV virus was not clear, and the spread period was encountering China’s annual spring migration, which made the epidemic spread rapidly from Wuhan to almost all provinces in China.

Methods This study builds a SEIRD model that considers the movement of people across regions, revealing the effects of three measures on controlling the spread of the epidemic.Based on MATLAB R2017a, computational experiments were performed to simulate the epidemic prevention and control measures.

Findings The research results show that current prevention and control measures in China are very necessary. This study further validates the concerns of international and domestic experts regarding asymptomatic transmission (E-status).

Interpretation The results of this study are applicable to explore the impact of the implementation of relevant measures on the prevention and control of epidemic spread, and to identify key individuals that may exist during the spread of the epidemic.

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
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Posted January 28, 2020.
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Beware of asymptomatic transmission: Study on 2019-nCoV prevention and control measures based on extended SEIR model
Peng Shao, Yingji Shan
bioRxiv 2020.01.28.923169; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.28.923169
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Beware of asymptomatic transmission: Study on 2019-nCoV prevention and control measures based on extended SEIR model
Peng Shao, Yingji Shan
bioRxiv 2020.01.28.923169; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.28.923169

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