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Predicting missing links in global host-parasite networks

View ORCID ProfileMaxwell J. Farrell, Mohamad Elmasri, David Stephens, T. Jonathan Davies
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.25.965046
Maxwell J. Farrell
1Department of Biology, McGill University
2Ecology & Evolutionary Biology Department, University of Toronto
3Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia
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  • ORCID record for Maxwell J. Farrell
  • For correspondence: maxwell.farrell@utoronto.ca
Mohamad Elmasri
4Department of Mathematics & Statistics, McGill University
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David Stephens
4Department of Mathematics & Statistics, McGill University
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T. Jonathan Davies
5Botany, Forest & Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia
6African Centre for DNA Barcoding, University of Johannesburg
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Abstract

Parasites that infect multiple species cause major health burdens globally, but for many, the full suite of susceptible hosts is unknown. Proactive disease surveillance involves gathering host-parasite association data, predicting missing links, and targeting efforts towards the most likely undocumented interactions. Using the largest global network of mammal host-parasite interactions amalgamated to date (>29,000 interactions), we predict undocumented links and conduct targeted literature searches. We find evidence for many of the top “missing” links, including parasites of humans, domesticated animals, and endangered wildlife, and identify regions such as tropical and central America as likely hotspots of undocumented associations. This approach of iterated prediction and targeted surveillance can efficiently guide the collection of host-parasite interaction data critical for developing broad-scale theories in disease ecology and evolution, help to identify previously undocumented hosts, and inform predictions of future host-parasite interactions.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Footnotes

  • Small changes to the text throughout, revised description of methods, minor revision of results and associated figures, expanded format for citations.

  • http://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.8969882

  • http://github.com/melmasri/HP-prediction

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license.
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Posted April 18, 2020.
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Predicting missing links in global host-parasite networks
Maxwell J. Farrell, Mohamad Elmasri, David Stephens, T. Jonathan Davies
bioRxiv 2020.02.25.965046; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.25.965046
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Predicting missing links in global host-parasite networks
Maxwell J. Farrell, Mohamad Elmasri, David Stephens, T. Jonathan Davies
bioRxiv 2020.02.25.965046; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.25.965046

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