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Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

View ORCID ProfileHenrique M. Pereira, View ORCID ProfileIsabel M.D. Rosa, View ORCID ProfileInês S. Martins, View ORCID ProfileHyeJin Kim, View ORCID ProfilePaul Leadley, View ORCID ProfileAlexander Popp, View ORCID ProfileDetlef P. van Vuuren, View ORCID ProfileGeorge Hurtt, View ORCID ProfilePeter Anthoni, View ORCID ProfileAlmut Arneth, View ORCID ProfileDaniele Baisero, View ORCID ProfileRebecca Chaplin-Kramer, View ORCID ProfileLouise Chini, View ORCID ProfileFulvio Di Fulvio, View ORCID ProfileMoreno Di Marco, View ORCID ProfileSimon Ferrier, Shinichiro Fujimori, View ORCID ProfileCarlos A. Guerra, View ORCID ProfileMichael Harfoot, Thomas D. Harwood, Tomoko Hasegawa, View ORCID ProfileVanessa Haverd, View ORCID ProfilePetr Havlík, View ORCID ProfileStefanie Hellweg, View ORCID ProfileJelle P. Hilbers, Samantha L. L. Hill, Akiko Hirata, View ORCID ProfileAndrew J. Hoskins, View ORCID ProfileFlorian Humpenöder, View ORCID ProfileJan H. Janse, View ORCID ProfileWalter Jetz, Justin A. Johnson, View ORCID ProfileAndreas Krause, View ORCID ProfileDavid Leclère, View ORCID ProfileTetsuya Matsui, View ORCID ProfileJohan R. Meijer, View ORCID ProfileCory Merow, View ORCID ProfileMichael Obsersteiner, View ORCID ProfileHaruka Ohashi, View ORCID ProfileBenjamin Poulter, View ORCID ProfileAndy Purvis, View ORCID ProfileBenjamin Quesada, View ORCID ProfileCarlo Rondinini, View ORCID ProfileAafke M. Schipper, View ORCID ProfileJosef Settele, Richard Sharp, View ORCID ProfileElke Stehfest, View ORCID ProfileBernardo B. N. Strassburg, View ORCID ProfileKiyoshi Takahashi, Matthew V. Talluto, View ORCID ProfileWilfried Thuiller, View ORCID ProfileNicolas Titeux, View ORCID ProfilePiero Visconti, View ORCID ProfileChristopher Ware, Florian Wolf, View ORCID ProfileRob Alkemade
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.14.031716
Henrique M. Pereira
1German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
2Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1, 06108 Halle (Saale), Germany
3CIBIO/InBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, Universidade do Porto, Campus Agrário de Vairão, R. Padre Armando Quintas, 4485-661 Vairão, Portugal
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  • ORCID record for Henrique M. Pereira
  • For correspondence: hpereira@idiv.de
Isabel M.D. Rosa
1German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
2Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1, 06108 Halle (Saale), Germany
4School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, Gwynedd, LL57 2DG
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Inês S. Martins
1German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
2Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1, 06108 Halle (Saale), Germany
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HyeJin Kim
1German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
2Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1, 06108 Halle (Saale), Germany
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Paul Leadley
5Ecologie Systématique Evolution, Univ. Paris-Sud, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, 91400, Orsay, France
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Alexander Popp
6Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
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Detlef P. van Vuuren
7PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Hague, the Netherlands
8Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
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George Hurtt
9Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
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Peter Anthoni
10Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Dept. Meteorology and Climate/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
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Almut Arneth
10Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Dept. Meteorology and Climate/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
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Daniele Baisero
11Global Mammal Assessment program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza Università di Roma, Viale dell’Università 32, I-00185, Rome, Italy
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Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer
12The Natural Capital Project, Stanford University, 371 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
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Louise Chini
9Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
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Fulvio Di Fulvio
13International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg 2361, Austria
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Moreno Di Marco
14CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 2583, Brisbane QLD 4001, Australia
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Simon Ferrier
15CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1700, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia
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  • ORCID record for Simon Ferrier
Shinichiro Fujimori
16Kyoto University, Department of Environmental Engineering, 361, C1-3, Kyoto University Katsura Campus, Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto-city, 615-8540 Japan
17Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
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Carlos A. Guerra
1German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
2Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1, 06108 Halle (Saale), Germany
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Michael Harfoot
18UN Environment, World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, UK
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Thomas D. Harwood
15CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1700, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia
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Tomoko Hasegawa
17Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
19College of Science and Engineering, Ritsumeikan University, 1-1-1, Nojihigashi, Kusatsu, Shiga, 525-8577, Japan
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Vanessa Haverd
20CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, 2601, Australia
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Petr Havlík
13International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg 2361, Austria
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Stefanie Hellweg
21Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
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Jelle P. Hilbers
7PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Hague, the Netherlands
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Samantha L. L. Hill
18UN Environment, World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, UK
22Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, UK
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Akiko Hirata
17Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
23Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, 1 Matsunosato, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8687, Japan
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Andrew J. Hoskins
15CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1700, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia
24CSIRO Health and Biosecurity, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4810, Australia
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Florian Humpenöder
6Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
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Jan H. Janse
7PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Hague, the Netherlands
25Netherlands Inst. of Ecology NIOO-KNAW, Wageningen, the Netherlands
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Walter Jetz
26Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, 165 Prospect St, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
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Justin A. Johnson
27Natural Capital Project, Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, 1954 Buford Ave, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA
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Andreas Krause
10Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Dept. Meteorology and Climate/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
28Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, 85354 Freising, Germany
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David Leclère
13International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg 2361, Austria
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Tetsuya Matsui
23Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, 1 Matsunosato, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8687, Japan
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Johan R. Meijer
7PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Hague, the Netherlands
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Cory Merow
26Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, 165 Prospect St, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
29Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Unit 3043, Storrs CT 06269
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Michael Obsersteiner
13International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg 2361, Austria
30Environmental Change Institute, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, United Kingdom
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Haruka Ohashi
23Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, 1 Matsunosato, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8687, Japan
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Benjamin Poulter
31NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
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Andy Purvis
22Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, UK
32Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK
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Benjamin Quesada
10Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Dept. Meteorology and Climate/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
33Universidad del Rosario, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Kr 26 No 63B-48, Bogotá D.C, Colombia
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Carlo Rondinini
11Global Mammal Assessment program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza Università di Roma, Viale dell’Università 32, I-00185, Rome, Italy
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Aafke M. Schipper
7PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Hague, the Netherlands
34Radboud University, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, PO Box 9010, 6500 GL Nijmegen, Netherlands
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Josef Settele
1German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
35Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Department of Community Ecology, Theodor-Lieser-Strasse 4, 06210 Halle, Germany
36Institute of Biological Sciences, University of the Philippines, Los Baños, College, 4031, Laguna, Philippines
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Richard Sharp
12The Natural Capital Project, Stanford University, 371 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
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Elke Stehfest
7PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Hague, the Netherlands
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Bernardo B. N. Strassburg
37Rio Conservation and Sustainability Science Centre, Department of Geography and the 10 Environment, Pontifícia Universidade Católica, 22453900, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
38International Institute for Sustainability, Estrada Dona Castorina 124, 22460-320, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
39Postgraduate Programme in Ecology, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, 21941-590, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Kiyoshi Takahashi
17Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
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Matthew V. Talluto
40Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Müggelseedamm 310, 12587 Berlin, Germany
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Wilfried Thuiller
41Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, LECA, Laboratoire d’Écologie Alpine, F-38000 Grenoble, France
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Nicolas Titeux
1German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
35Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Department of Community Ecology, Theodor-Lieser-Strasse 4, 06210 Halle, Germany
42Université Catholique de Louvain, Earth and Life Institute, Biodiversity Research Centre, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
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Piero Visconti
13International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg 2361, Austria
43Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent’s Park, London, NW1 4RY
44Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, Gower Street, London, C1E6BT, UK
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Christopher Ware
15CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1700, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia
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Florian Wolf
1German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
2Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1, 06108 Halle (Saale), Germany
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Rob Alkemade
7PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Hague, the Netherlands
45Environmental System Analysis Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands
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Abstract

Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

One Sentence Summary Development pathways exist that allow for a reduction of the rates of biodiversity loss from land-use change and improvement in regulating services but climate change poses an increasing challenge.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Footnotes

  • Author order in biorXiv was revised to match author order in manuscript.

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license.
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Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050
Henrique M. Pereira, Isabel M.D. Rosa, Inês S. Martins, HyeJin Kim, Paul Leadley, Alexander Popp, Detlef P. van Vuuren, George Hurtt, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniele Baisero, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, Louise Chini, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Moreno Di Marco, Simon Ferrier, Shinichiro Fujimori, Carlos A. Guerra, Michael Harfoot, Thomas D. Harwood, Tomoko Hasegawa, Vanessa Haverd, Petr Havlík, Stefanie Hellweg, Jelle P. Hilbers, Samantha L. L. Hill, Akiko Hirata, Andrew J. Hoskins, Florian Humpenöder, Jan H. Janse, Walter Jetz, Justin A. Johnson, Andreas Krause, David Leclère, Tetsuya Matsui, Johan R. Meijer, Cory Merow, Michael Obsersteiner, Haruka Ohashi, Benjamin Poulter, Andy Purvis, Benjamin Quesada, Carlo Rondinini, Aafke M. Schipper, Josef Settele, Richard Sharp, Elke Stehfest, Bernardo B. N. Strassburg, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Matthew V. Talluto, Wilfried Thuiller, Nicolas Titeux, Piero Visconti, Christopher Ware, Florian Wolf, Rob Alkemade
bioRxiv 2020.04.14.031716; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.14.031716
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Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050
Henrique M. Pereira, Isabel M.D. Rosa, Inês S. Martins, HyeJin Kim, Paul Leadley, Alexander Popp, Detlef P. van Vuuren, George Hurtt, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniele Baisero, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, Louise Chini, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Moreno Di Marco, Simon Ferrier, Shinichiro Fujimori, Carlos A. Guerra, Michael Harfoot, Thomas D. Harwood, Tomoko Hasegawa, Vanessa Haverd, Petr Havlík, Stefanie Hellweg, Jelle P. Hilbers, Samantha L. L. Hill, Akiko Hirata, Andrew J. Hoskins, Florian Humpenöder, Jan H. Janse, Walter Jetz, Justin A. Johnson, Andreas Krause, David Leclère, Tetsuya Matsui, Johan R. Meijer, Cory Merow, Michael Obsersteiner, Haruka Ohashi, Benjamin Poulter, Andy Purvis, Benjamin Quesada, Carlo Rondinini, Aafke M. Schipper, Josef Settele, Richard Sharp, Elke Stehfest, Bernardo B. N. Strassburg, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Matthew V. Talluto, Wilfried Thuiller, Nicolas Titeux, Piero Visconti, Christopher Ware, Florian Wolf, Rob Alkemade
bioRxiv 2020.04.14.031716; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.14.031716

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