Abstract
Global food security is strongly determined by crop production. Climate change will not only affect crop yields directly, but also indirectly via the distributions and impacts of plant pathogens that can cause devastating production losses. However, the likely changes in pathogen pressure in relation to global crop production are poorly understood. Here we show that disease risk for 79 fungal and oomycete crop pathogens will closely track projected yield changes in 12 major crops over the 21st Century. For most crops, yields are likely to increase at high latitudes but disease risk will also grow. In addition, the USA, Europe and China will experience major changes in pathogen assemblages. In contrast, while the tropics will see little or no productivity gains, the disease burden is also likely to decline. The benefits of yield gains will therefore be tempered by the increased burden of crop protection.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.