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Efficient Estimation of Large-Scale Spatial Capture-Recapture Models

View ORCID ProfileDaniel Turek, Cyril Milleret, Torbjørn Ergon, Henrik Brøseth, Perry de Valpine
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.07.081182
Daniel Turek
1Williams College, Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Williamstown, MA 01267, USA
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  • For correspondence: dbt1@williams.edu
Cyril Milleret
2Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, NO-1432 Ås, Norway
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Torbjørn Ergon
3Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
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Henrik Brøseth
4Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Department of Terrestrial Ecology, NO-7485 Trondheim, Norway
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Perry de Valpine
5University of California Berkeley, Department of Environmental Science, Policy & Management, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
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Abstract

Capture-recapture methods are a common tool in ecological statistics, which have been extended to spatial capture-recapture models for data accompanied by location information. However, standard formulations of these models can be unwieldy and computationally intractable for large spatial scales, many individuals, and/or activity center movement. We provide a cumulative series of methods that yield dramatic improvements in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation for two examples. These include removing unnecessary computations, integrating out latent states, vectorizing declarations, and restricting calculations to the locality of individuals. Our approaches leverage the flexibility provided by the nimble R package. In our first example, we demonstrate an improvement in MCMC efficiency (the rate of generating effectively independent posterior samples) by a factor of 100. In our second example, we reduce the computing time required to generate 10,000 posterior samples from 4.5 hours down to five minutes, and realize an increase in MCMC efficiency by a factor of 25. We also explain how these approaches can be applied generally to other spatially-indexed hierarchical models. R code is provided for all examples, as well as an executable web-appendix.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
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Posted May 08, 2020.
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Efficient Estimation of Large-Scale Spatial Capture-Recapture Models
Daniel Turek, Cyril Milleret, Torbjørn Ergon, Henrik Brøseth, Perry de Valpine
bioRxiv 2020.05.07.081182; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.07.081182
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Efficient Estimation of Large-Scale Spatial Capture-Recapture Models
Daniel Turek, Cyril Milleret, Torbjørn Ergon, Henrik Brøseth, Perry de Valpine
bioRxiv 2020.05.07.081182; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.07.081182

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