Abstract
RNA viruses are proficient at switching host species, and evolving adaptations to exploit the new host’s cells efficiently. Surprisingly, SARS-CoV-2 has apparently required no significant adaptation to humans since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, with no observed selective sweeps since genome sampling began. Here we assess the types of natural selection taking place in Sarbecoviruses in horseshoe bats versus SARS-CoV-2 evolution in humans. While there is moderate evidence of diversifying positive selection in SARS-CoV-2 in humans, it is limited to the early phase of the pandemic, and purifying selection is much weaker in SARS-CoV-2 than in related bat Sarbecoviruses. In contrast, our analysis detects significant positive episodic diversifying selection acting on the bat virus lineage SARS-CoV-2 emerged from, accompanied by an adaptive depletion in CpG composition presumed to be linked to the action of antiviral mechanisms in ancestral hosts. The closest bat virus to SARS-CoV-2, RmYN02 (sharing an ancestor ∼1976), is a recombinant with a structure that includes differential CpG content in Spike; clear evidence of coinfection and evolution in bats without involvement of other species. Collectively our results demonstrate the progenitor of SARS-CoV-2 was capable of near immediate human-human transmission as a consequence of its adaptive evolutionary history in bats, not humans.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Footnotes
↵# Joint first authors.
We've updated our analysis resulting in both new figures and a re-ordering of existing figures, re-writing of a few sections to reflect the changes, and some movements of text and figures from the main to supplementary sections. The updated analysis involved two additional authors. We've changed the title to better reflect the main conclusion.
