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The chaos in calibrating crop models

Daniel Wallach, Taru Palosuo, Peter Thorburn, Zvi Hochman, Emmanuelle Gourdain, Fety Andrianasolo, Senthold Asseng, Bruno Basso, Samuel Buis, Neil Crout, Camilla Dibari, Benjamin Dumont, Roberto Ferrise, Thomas Gaiser, Cecile Garcia, Sebastian Gayler, Afshin Ghahramani, Santosh Hiremath, Steven Hoek, Heidi Horan, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Mingxia Huang, Mohamed Jabloun, Per-Erik Jansson, Qi Jing, Eric Justes, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Anne Klosterhalfen, Marie Launay, Elisabet Lewan, Qunying Luo, Bernardo Maestrini, Henrike Mielenz, Marco Moriondo, Hasti Nariman Zadeh, Gloria Padovan, Jørgen Eivind Olesen, Arne Poyda, Eckart Priesack, Johannes Wilhelmus Maria Pullens, Budong Qian, Niels Schütze, Vakhtang Shelia, Amir Souissi, Xenia Specka, Amit Kumar Srivastava, Tommaso Stella, Thilo Streck, Giacomo Trombi, Evelyn Wallor, Jing Wang, Tobias K.D. Weber, Lutz Weihermüller, Allard de Wit, Thomas Wöhling, Liujun Xiao, Chuang Zhao, Yan Zhu, Sabine J. Seidel
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.12.294744
Daniel Wallach
1INRAE, UMR AGIR, Castanet Tolosan, France
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  • For correspondence: Daniel.Wallach@inrae.fr
Taru Palosuo
2Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
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Peter Thorburn
3CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
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Zvi Hochman
3CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
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Emmanuelle Gourdain
4ARVALIS – Institut du végétal Paris, France
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Fety Andrianasolo
4ARVALIS – Institut du végétal Paris, France
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Senthold Asseng
5Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
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Bruno Basso
6Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan
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Samuel Buis
7INRAE, UMR 1114 EMMAH, Avignon, France
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Neil Crout
8School of Biosciences, University of Nottingham, Loughborough, UK
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Camilla Dibari
9Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, Italy
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Benjamin Dumont
10Plant Sciences & TERRA Teaching and Research Centre, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, University of Liege, Gembloux, Belgium
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Roberto Ferrise
9Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, Italy
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Thomas Gaiser
11Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn, Germany
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Cecile Garcia
6Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan
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Sebastian Gayler
12Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Biogeophysics, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
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Afshin Ghahramani
13Centre for Sustainable Agricultural Systems, Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia
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Santosh Hiremath
14Aalto University School of Science, Espoo, Finland
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Steven Hoek
15Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
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Heidi Horan
3CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
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Gerrit Hoogenboom
5Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
16Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
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Mingxia Huang
17College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
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Mohamed Jabloun
8School of Biosciences, University of Nottingham, Loughborough, UK
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Per-Erik Jansson
18Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm, Sweden
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Qi Jing
19Ottawa Research and Development Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, Canada
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Eric Justes
20CIRAD, UMR SYSTEM, Montpellier, France
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Kurt Christian Kersebaum
21Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
22Global Change Research Institute CAS, Brno, Czech Republic
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Anne Klosterhalfen
23Institute of Bio- and Geosciences – IBG-3, Agrosphere, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich, Germany
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Marie Launay
24INRAE, US 1116 AgroClim, Avignon, France
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Elisabet Lewan
25Department of Soil and Environment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Uppsala, Sweden
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Qunying Luo
26Hillridge Technology Pty Ltd, Sydney, Australia
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Bernardo Maestrini
15Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
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Henrike Mielenz
27Institute for Crop and Soil Science, Federal Research Centre for cultivated Plants, Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI), Braunschweig, Germany
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Marco Moriondo
28CNR-IBE, Firenze, Italy
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Hasti Nariman Zadeh
14Aalto University School of Science, Espoo, Finland
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Gloria Padovan
9Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, Italy
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Jørgen Eivind Olesen
29Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele, Denmark
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Arne Poyda
30Grass and Forage Science / Organic Agriculture, Institute of Crop Science and Plant Breeding, Kiel University, Kiel, Germany
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Eckart Priesack
31Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
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Johannes Wilhelmus Maria Pullens
29Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele, Denmark
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Budong Qian
19Ottawa Research and Development Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, Canada
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Niels Schütze
32Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Chair of Hydrology, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany
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Vakhtang Shelia
5Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
16Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
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Amir Souissi
33National Institute of Agronomic Research of Tunisia (INRAT), Agronomy Laboratory, University of Carthage, Tunis, Tunisia
34National Agronomy Institute of Tunisia (INAT), University of Carthage, Tunis, Tunisia
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Xenia Specka
21Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
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Amit Kumar Srivastava
11Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn, Germany
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Tommaso Stella
21Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
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Thilo Streck
12Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Biogeophysics, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
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Giacomo Trombi
9Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, Italy
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Evelyn Wallor
21Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
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Jing Wang
17College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
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Tobias K.D. Weber
12Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Biogeophysics, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
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Lutz Weihermüller
23Institute of Bio- and Geosciences – IBG-3, Agrosphere, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich, Germany
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Allard de Wit
15Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
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Thomas Wöhling
32Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Chair of Hydrology, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany
35Lincoln Agritech Ltd., Hamilton, New Zealand
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Liujun Xiao
5Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
36National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
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Chuang Zhao
5Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
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Yan Zhu
36National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
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Sabine J. Seidel
11Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn, Germany
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Abstract

Calibration, the estimation of model parameters based on fitting the model to experimental data, is among the first steps in essentially every application of crop models and process models in other fields and has an important impact on simulated values. The goal of this study is to develop a comprehensive list of the decisions involved in calibration and to identify the range of choices made in practice, as groundwork for developing guidelines for crop model calibration starting with phenology. Three groups of decisions are identified; the criterion for choosing the parameter values, the choice of parameters to estimate and numerical aspects of parameter estimation. It is found that in practice there is a large diversity of choices for every decision, even among modeling groups using the same model structure. These findings are relevant to process models in other fields.

Highlights

  • We documented calibration procedures in two multi-model studies

  • Groups differ in criteria for best parameters, parameters to estimate and software

  • There are important differences even between groups using the same model structure

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
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The chaos in calibrating crop models
Daniel Wallach, Taru Palosuo, Peter Thorburn, Zvi Hochman, Emmanuelle Gourdain, Fety Andrianasolo, Senthold Asseng, Bruno Basso, Samuel Buis, Neil Crout, Camilla Dibari, Benjamin Dumont, Roberto Ferrise, Thomas Gaiser, Cecile Garcia, Sebastian Gayler, Afshin Ghahramani, Santosh Hiremath, Steven Hoek, Heidi Horan, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Mingxia Huang, Mohamed Jabloun, Per-Erik Jansson, Qi Jing, Eric Justes, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Anne Klosterhalfen, Marie Launay, Elisabet Lewan, Qunying Luo, Bernardo Maestrini, Henrike Mielenz, Marco Moriondo, Hasti Nariman Zadeh, Gloria Padovan, Jørgen Eivind Olesen, Arne Poyda, Eckart Priesack, Johannes Wilhelmus Maria Pullens, Budong Qian, Niels Schütze, Vakhtang Shelia, Amir Souissi, Xenia Specka, Amit Kumar Srivastava, Tommaso Stella, Thilo Streck, Giacomo Trombi, Evelyn Wallor, Jing Wang, Tobias K.D. Weber, Lutz Weihermüller, Allard de Wit, Thomas Wöhling, Liujun Xiao, Chuang Zhao, Yan Zhu, Sabine J. Seidel
bioRxiv 2020.09.12.294744; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.12.294744
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The chaos in calibrating crop models
Daniel Wallach, Taru Palosuo, Peter Thorburn, Zvi Hochman, Emmanuelle Gourdain, Fety Andrianasolo, Senthold Asseng, Bruno Basso, Samuel Buis, Neil Crout, Camilla Dibari, Benjamin Dumont, Roberto Ferrise, Thomas Gaiser, Cecile Garcia, Sebastian Gayler, Afshin Ghahramani, Santosh Hiremath, Steven Hoek, Heidi Horan, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Mingxia Huang, Mohamed Jabloun, Per-Erik Jansson, Qi Jing, Eric Justes, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Anne Klosterhalfen, Marie Launay, Elisabet Lewan, Qunying Luo, Bernardo Maestrini, Henrike Mielenz, Marco Moriondo, Hasti Nariman Zadeh, Gloria Padovan, Jørgen Eivind Olesen, Arne Poyda, Eckart Priesack, Johannes Wilhelmus Maria Pullens, Budong Qian, Niels Schütze, Vakhtang Shelia, Amir Souissi, Xenia Specka, Amit Kumar Srivastava, Tommaso Stella, Thilo Streck, Giacomo Trombi, Evelyn Wallor, Jing Wang, Tobias K.D. Weber, Lutz Weihermüller, Allard de Wit, Thomas Wöhling, Liujun Xiao, Chuang Zhao, Yan Zhu, Sabine J. Seidel
bioRxiv 2020.09.12.294744; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.12.294744

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