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Data-driven yield projections suggest large opportunities to improve Europe’s soybean self-sufficiency under climate change

View ORCID ProfileNicolas Guilpart, View ORCID ProfileToshichika Iizumi, View ORCID ProfileDavid Makowski
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.08.331496
Nicolas Guilpart
1Université Paris-Saclay, AgroParisTech, INRAE, UMR Agronomie, 78850, Thiverval-Grignon, France
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  • For correspondence: nicolas.guilpart@agroparistech.fr
Toshichika Iizumi
2Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (NARO), 3-1-3 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8604, Japan
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David Makowski
3CIRED, CIRAD, 45bis Avenue de la Belle Gabrielle, 94130 Nogent-sur-Marne, France
4Université Paris-Saclay, AgroParisTech, INRAE, UMR MIA-Paris, 75005, Paris, France
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Abstract

Currently, demand for soybean in Europe is mostly fulfilled by imports. However, soybean-growing areas across Europe have been rapidly increasing in response to a rising demand for locally-produced, non-GM soybean in recent years. This raises questions about the suitability of European agro-climatic conditions for soybean production. We used data-driven relationships between climate and soybean yield derived from machine-learning techniques to make yield projections under current and future climate with moderate (RCP 4.5) to intense (RCP 8.5) warming, up to the 2050s and 2090s time horizons. Results suggest that a self-sufficiency level of 50% (100%) would be achievable in Europe under historical and future climate if 4-5% (9-12%) of the current European cropland is dedicated to soybean production. The associated increase in soybean area in Europe would bring environmental benefits, with a potential decrease of nitrogen fertilizer use in Europe by 5-8% (13-18%) and a possible reduction of deforestation in biodiversity hotspots in South America. However, it would also lead to an important reduction in the production of other cultivated species in Europe (e.g. cereals) and a potential increase in the use of irrigation water.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
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Posted October 08, 2020.
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Data-driven yield projections suggest large opportunities to improve Europe’s soybean self-sufficiency under climate change
Nicolas Guilpart, Toshichika Iizumi, David Makowski
bioRxiv 2020.10.08.331496; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.08.331496
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Data-driven yield projections suggest large opportunities to improve Europe’s soybean self-sufficiency under climate change
Nicolas Guilpart, Toshichika Iizumi, David Makowski
bioRxiv 2020.10.08.331496; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.08.331496

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