Abstract
Bioclimatic models assume that at broad spatial scales, climate is the primary determinant of species distribution. Meanwhile, processes such as source-sink dynamics can be ignored because they are thought to manifest at length scales comparable to species mean dispersal distance. We present a reaction-diffusion model to show species can use sink patches near the bioclimatic (or niche) limit as stepping-stones to occupy sinks much further than the mean dispersal distance, thereby extending the distribution far beyond the bioclimatic envelope. This mismatch between geographical and bioclimatic limits is mediated by the shape of the bioclimatic limit and may be significant for low growth sensitivity and fast dispersal life strategy. These findings challenge one of the core assumptions of the bioclimatic models. Therefore, we advocate that biogeographers consider the role of dispersal when using bioclimatic models to generate inferences about the ecological and evolutionary processes that determine the distribution of biota.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Footnotes
↵$ tkeitt{at}utexas.edu
Statement of Authorship: NG conceived and designed the study and wrote the paper with feedback from THK.
Data accessibility statement: The manuscript does not have any data Running title: Source-sink dynamics at range limits
