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The anatomy of a phenological mismatch: interacting consumer demand and resource characteristics determine the consequences of mismatching

View ORCID ProfileLuke R. Wilde, Josiah E. Simmons, Rose J. Swift, View ORCID ProfileNathan R. Senner
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.22.423968
Luke R. Wilde
1Department of Biological Sciences, University of South Carolina, 715 Sumter St., Columbia, SC 29208
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Josiah E. Simmons
2Division of Biological Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana
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Rose J. Swift
3U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, 8711 37th Street SE Jamestown, ND 58401
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Nathan R. Senner
1Department of Biological Sciences, University of South Carolina, 715 Sumter St., Columbia, SC 29208
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Abstract

Climate change has caused shifts in seasonally recurring biological events and the temporal decoupling of consumer-resource pairs – i.e., phenological mismatching. Despite the hypothetical risk mismatching poses to consumers, they do not invariably lead to individual- or population-level effects. This may stem from how mismatches are typically defined, e.g., an individual or population is ‘matched’ or ‘mismatched’ based on the degree of asynchrony with a resource pulse. However, because both resource availability and consumer demands change over time, this categorical definition can obscure within- or among-individual fitness effects. We therefore developed models to identify the effects of resource characteristics on individual- and population-level processes and determine how the strength of these effects change throughout a consumer’s life. We then measured the effects of resource characteristics on the growth, daily survival, and fledging rates of Hudsonian godwit (Limosa haemastica) chicks hatched near Beluga River, Alaska. At the individual-level, chick growth and survival improved following periods of higher invertebrate abundance but were increasingly dependent on the availability of larger prey as chicks aged. At the population level, seasonal fledging rates were best explained by a model including age-structured consumer demand. Our study suggests that modelling the effects of mismatching as a disrupted interaction between consumers and their resources provides a biological mechanism for how mismatching occurs and clarifies when it matters to individuals and populations. Given the variable responses to mismatching across consumer populations, such tools for predicting how populations may respond under future climatic conditions will be invaluable.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Footnotes

  • https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.x69p8czh0

  • http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4298755

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also made available for use under a CC0 license.
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Posted December 22, 2020.
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The anatomy of a phenological mismatch: interacting consumer demand and resource characteristics determine the consequences of mismatching
Luke R. Wilde, Josiah E. Simmons, Rose J. Swift, Nathan R. Senner
bioRxiv 2020.12.22.423968; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.22.423968
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The anatomy of a phenological mismatch: interacting consumer demand and resource characteristics determine the consequences of mismatching
Luke R. Wilde, Josiah E. Simmons, Rose J. Swift, Nathan R. Senner
bioRxiv 2020.12.22.423968; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.22.423968

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