Abstract
Crocodilians and their allies have survived several mass extinction events. However, the impact of the K-Pg mass extinction event on crocodylomorphs is considered as minor or non-existent although other clades of archosaurs, e.g., non-avian dinosaurs and pterosaurs, went extinct completely. Previous approaches using fossil occurrence data alone have proven inconclusive. In this paper, we take a phylogenetic approach using extant and extinct species. The time-calibrated phylogeny of extant crocodilians provides insights into the pattern of recent biodiversity changes whereas fossil occurrence data provide insights about the more ancient past. The two data sources combined into a single phylogeny with extinct and extant taxa provide a holistic view of the historical biodiversity. To utilize this combined data and to infer the impact of the K-Pg mass extinction event, we derive the likelihood function for a time-varying (episodic) serially sampled birth-death model that additionally incorporates mass extinctions and bursts of births. We implemented the likelihood function in a Bayesian framework with recently developed smoothing priors to accommodate for both abrupt and gradual changes in speciation, extinction and fossilization rates. Contrary to previous research, we find strong evidence for the K-Pg extinction event in crocodiles and their allies. This signal is robust to uncertainty in the phylogeny and the prior on the mass extinctions. Through simulated data analyses, we show that there is high power to detect this mass extinction and little risk of false positives.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
