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Alternative futures for global biological invasions

Núria Roura-Pascual, Brian Leung, Wolfgang Rabitsch, Lucas Rutting, Joost Vervoort, Sven Bacher, Stefan Dullinger, Karl-Heinz Erb, Jonathan M. Jeschke, Stelios Katsanevakis, Ingolf Kühn, Bernd Lenzner, Andrew M. Liebhold, Michael Obersteiner, Anibal Pauchard, Garry D. Peterson, Helen E. Roy, Hanno Seebens, Marten Winter, Mark A. Burgman, Piero Genovesi, Philip E. Hulme, Reuben P. Keller, Guillaume Latombe, Melodie A. McGeoch, Gregory M. Ruiz, Riccardo Scalera, Michael R. Springborn, Betsy von Holle, Franz Essl
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.15.426694
Núria Roura-Pascual
1Departament de Ciències Ambientals, Facultat de Ciències, Universitat de Girona, Girona, Catalonia
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  • For correspondence: nrourapascual@gmail.com
Brian Leung
2Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada H3A 1B1
3School of Environment, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, H3A 2A7
4Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, PO Box 0843-03092, Panama City, Panama
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Wolfgang Rabitsch
5Environmental Agency, Department of Biodiversity and Natural Conservation, Vienna, Austria
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Lucas Rutting
6University of Utrecht, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Princetonlaan 8a, NL-3584 CB Utrecht, Netherlands
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Joost Vervoort
6University of Utrecht, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Princetonlaan 8a, NL-3584 CB Utrecht, Netherlands
7University of Oxford, Environmental Change Institute, South Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3QY, England
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Sven Bacher
8University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland
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Stefan Dullinger
9Division for Conservation Biology, Landscape and Vegetation Ecology, University of Vienna, Rennweg 14, 1030, Vienna, Austria
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Karl-Heinz Erb
10Alpen-Adria-Universität Klagenfurt, Institute of Social Ecology, Vienna, Schottenfeldgasse 29, A-1070 Vienna, Austria
11Univerity of Natural Resources & Life Sciences, Schottenfeldgasse 29, A-1070 Vienna, Austria
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Jonathan M. Jeschke
12Freie Universität Berlin, Department of Biology, Chemistry, Pharmacy, Institute of Biology, Königin-Luise-Str. 1-3, 14195 Berlin, Germany
13Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Müggelseedamm 310, 12587 Berlin, Germany
14Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Königin-Luise-Str. 2-4, 14195 Berlin, Germany
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Stelios Katsanevakis
15Department of Marine Sciences, University of the Aegean, 81100 Mytilene, Greece
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Ingolf Kühn
16Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Theodor-Lieser Str. 4, 06120 Halle, Germany
17Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Institute of Biology/Geobotany and Botanic Garden, Am Kirchtor 2, 06108 Halle, Germany
18German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Puschstr. 4, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
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Bernd Lenzner
9Division for Conservation Biology, Landscape and Vegetation Ecology, University of Vienna, Rennweg 14, 1030, Vienna, Austria
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Andrew M. Liebhold
19US Forest Service Northern Research Station, Morgantown, WV, 26505, USA
20Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Praha 6 - Suchdol, CZ 165 21, Czech Republic
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Michael Obersteiner
21International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
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Anibal Pauchard
22Universidad de Concepción, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales, LIB, Concepcion 4070386, Chile
23Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad (IEB), Santiago 7800003, Chile
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Garry D. Peterson
24Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
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Helen E. Roy
25UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
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Hanno Seebens
26Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
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Marten Winter
27German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
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Mark A. Burgman
28Imperial College London, Centre for Environmental Policy, London SW7 1NE, England
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Piero Genovesi
29Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA), Rome, Italy
30Chair IUCN/SSC Invasive Species Specialist Group, Rome, Italy
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Philip E. Hulme
31Lincoln University, Bio-Protection Research Centre, Lincoln, New Zealand
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Reuben P. Keller
32Institute of Environmental Sustainability, Loyola University Chicago. 1032 W. Sheridan Rd., Chicago, IL, 60660, USA
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Guillaume Latombe
9Division for Conservation Biology, Landscape and Vegetation Ecology, University of Vienna, Rennweg 14, 1030, Vienna, Austria
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Melodie A. McGeoch
33Monash University, School of Biological Sciences, Clayton, Vic 3800, Australia
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Gregory M. Ruiz
34Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, POB 28, Edgewater, MD 21037 USA
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Riccardo Scalera
30Chair IUCN/SSC Invasive Species Specialist Group, Rome, Italy
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Michael R. Springborn
35University of California, Davis, Department of Environmental Science and Policy, 1 Shields Ave, Davis, CA 95616 USA
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Betsy von Holle
36National Science Foundation, Division of Environmental Biology, Alexandria, Virginia USA
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Franz Essl
9Division for Conservation Biology, Landscape and Vegetation Ecology, University of Vienna, Rennweg 14, 1030, Vienna, Austria
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Abstract

Scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool to analyze complex and uncertain future socio-ecological developments. However, current global scenarios (narratives of how the world may develop) have neglected biological invasions, a major threat to biodiversity and the economy. We used a novel participatory process to develop a diverse set of global biological invasion scenarios spanning a wide breadth of plausible global futures through 2050. We adapted the widely used “two axes” scenario analysis approach to develop four families of four scenarios each, resulting in 16 scenarios that were later clustered into four contrasting sets of futures. Our analysis highlighted that socio-economic developments and changes in sustainability policies and lifestyle have the potential to shape biological invasions, in addition to well-known ecological drivers, such as climate and human land use change. Our scenarios align fairly well with the recently developed shared socio-economic pathways, but the factors that drive differences in biological invasions are underrepresented there. Including these factors in global scenarios and models is essential to adequately consider biological invasions in global environmental assessments, and obtain a more integrative picture of future socio-ecological developments.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

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The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
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Posted January 17, 2021.
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Alternative futures for global biological invasions
Núria Roura-Pascual, Brian Leung, Wolfgang Rabitsch, Lucas Rutting, Joost Vervoort, Sven Bacher, Stefan Dullinger, Karl-Heinz Erb, Jonathan M. Jeschke, Stelios Katsanevakis, Ingolf Kühn, Bernd Lenzner, Andrew M. Liebhold, Michael Obersteiner, Anibal Pauchard, Garry D. Peterson, Helen E. Roy, Hanno Seebens, Marten Winter, Mark A. Burgman, Piero Genovesi, Philip E. Hulme, Reuben P. Keller, Guillaume Latombe, Melodie A. McGeoch, Gregory M. Ruiz, Riccardo Scalera, Michael R. Springborn, Betsy von Holle, Franz Essl
bioRxiv 2021.01.15.426694; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.15.426694
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Alternative futures for global biological invasions
Núria Roura-Pascual, Brian Leung, Wolfgang Rabitsch, Lucas Rutting, Joost Vervoort, Sven Bacher, Stefan Dullinger, Karl-Heinz Erb, Jonathan M. Jeschke, Stelios Katsanevakis, Ingolf Kühn, Bernd Lenzner, Andrew M. Liebhold, Michael Obersteiner, Anibal Pauchard, Garry D. Peterson, Helen E. Roy, Hanno Seebens, Marten Winter, Mark A. Burgman, Piero Genovesi, Philip E. Hulme, Reuben P. Keller, Guillaume Latombe, Melodie A. McGeoch, Gregory M. Ruiz, Riccardo Scalera, Michael R. Springborn, Betsy von Holle, Franz Essl
bioRxiv 2021.01.15.426694; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.15.426694

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