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Extinction of the Thylacine

View ORCID ProfileBarry W. Brook, Stephen R. Sleightholme, Cameron R. Campbell, View ORCID ProfileIvan Jarić, View ORCID ProfileJessie C. Buettel
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.18.427214
Barry W. Brook
1School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001 Australia
2ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage (CABAH).
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  • For correspondence: barry.brook@utas.edu.au
Stephen R. Sleightholme
3Project Director - International Thylacine Specimen Database (ITSD), 26 Bitham Mill, Westbury, BA13 3DJ, UK
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Cameron R. Campbell
4, Fort Worth, TX 76135, USA
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Ivan Jarić
5Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Hydrobiology, České Budějovice, Czech Republic
6University of South Bohemia, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecosystem Biology, České Budějovice, Czech Republic
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Jessie C. Buettel
1School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001 Australia
2ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage (CABAH).
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Abstract

The Thylacine (Thylacinus cynocephalus), or ‘Tasmanian tiger’, is an icon of recent extinctions, but the timing of its final demise is shrouded in controversy. Extirpated from mainland Australia in the mid-Holocene, the large island of Tasmania became the species’ final stronghold. Following European settlement, the Thylacine was heavily persecuted and pushed to the margins of its range. The last captive animal died in 1936, but numerous sightings were reported thereafter. Here we collate and characterize the type, quality, and uncertainty of over a thousand unique sighting records of Thylacines since 1910. We use this novel and unique curated database to underpin a detailed reconstruction and mapping of the species’ spatio-temporal distributional dynamics, to pinpoint refugia of late survival and estimate the bioregional patterns of extirpation. Contrary to expectations, the inferred extinction window is wide and relatively recent, spanning from the 1980s to the present day, with extinction most likely in the late 1990s or early 2000s. While improbable, these aggregate data and modelling suggest some chance of ongoing persistence in the remote wilderness of the island. Although our findings for this iconic species hold intrinsic value, our new spatio-temporal mapping of extirpation patterns is also applicable more generally, to support the conservation prioritization and search efforts for other rare taxa of uncertain status.

Significance statement Like the Dodo and Passenger Pigeon before it, the Thylacine has become an iconic symbol of human-caused extinction. Even today, reports of the Thylacine’s possible ongoing survival in remote regions of Tasmania are newsworthy and continue to capture the public’s imagination, with much debate over whether the extinction event has yet occurred and if so, when? We show, using a unique and robust spatio-temporal mapping and modelling approach, underpinned by the world’s first sightings database (from 1910-present day), that the Thylacine likely persisted until the late 20th century, with some possibility of ongoing survival.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Footnotes

  • Competing Interest Statement: Authors declare no competing interests.

  • Classification: Biological Sciences (major), Ecology (minor)

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
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Posted January 19, 2021.
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Extinction of the Thylacine
Barry W. Brook, Stephen R. Sleightholme, Cameron R. Campbell, Ivan Jarić, Jessie C. Buettel
bioRxiv 2021.01.18.427214; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.18.427214
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Extinction of the Thylacine
Barry W. Brook, Stephen R. Sleightholme, Cameron R. Campbell, Ivan Jarić, Jessie C. Buettel
bioRxiv 2021.01.18.427214; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.18.427214

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