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Forest loss in Indonesian New Guinea: trends, drivers, and outlook

View ORCID ProfileDavid L.A. Gaveau, Lucas Santos, Bruno Locatelli, Mohammad A. Salim, Husnayaen Husnayaen, Erik Meijaard, Charlie Heatubun, Douglas Sheil
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.13.431006
David L.A. Gaveau
1TheTreeMap, Bagadou Bas, 46600 Martel, France
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  • ORCID record for David L.A. Gaveau
  • For correspondence: d.gaveau@thetreemap.com
Lucas Santos
2Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
3Instituto de Pesquisas Ambiental da Amazônia, Brasília, DF 71.503-505, Brazil
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Bruno Locatelli
4CIRAD Forests and Societies, Univ Montpellier, 34398 Montpellier, France
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Mohammad A. Salim
1TheTreeMap, Bagadou Bas, 46600 Martel, France
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Husnayaen Husnayaen
1TheTreeMap, Bagadou Bas, 46600 Martel, France
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Erik Meijaard
5Borneo Futures, Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei Darussalam
6Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, University of Kent, Canterbury, UK
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Charlie Heatubun
7Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, TW93AE, UK
8Fakultas Kehutanan, Universitas Papua, Jl. Gunung Salju, Amban, Manokwari, 98314, Indonesia
9Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Daerah Provinsi Papua Barat, Jl. Brig. Jend. Mar. (Purn.) Abraham O. Atururi, Arfai, Manokwari, Papua Barat, 98315, Indonesia
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Douglas Sheil
10Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management (INA), Norwegian University of Life Science (NMBU), Box 5003, 1432 Ås, Norway
11Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University & Research, PO Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands
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Abstract

The rich forests of Indonesian New Guinea are threatened. We used satellite data to examine annual forest loss, road development and plantation expansion from 2001 to 2019, then developed a model to predict future deforestation in this understudied region. In 2019, 34.29 million hectares (Mha), or 83% of Indonesian New Guinea, supported old-growth forest. Over nineteen years, two percent (0.75 Mha) were cleared: 45% (0.34 Mha) converted to industrial plantations, roads, mine tailings, or other uses near cities; 55% (0.41 Mha) cleared by transient processes including selective natural timber extraction, inland water bodies-related processes, fires, and shifting agriculture. Industrial plantations expanded by 0.23 Mha, with the majority (0.21 Mha; 28% of forest loss) replacing forests and reaching 0.28 Mha in 2019 (97% oil palm; 3% pulpwood). The Trans-Papua Highway, a ~4,000 km national investment project, increased by 1,554 km. Positive correlations between highway and plantations expansion indicate these are linked processes. Plantations and roads grew rapidly after 2011, peaked in 2015/16, and declined thereafter. Indonesian government allocated 2.62 Mha of land for the development of industrial plantations (90% oil palm 10% pulpwood) of which 74% (1.95 Mha) remained forest in 2019. A spatial model predicts that an additional 4.5 Mha of forest could be cleared by 2036 if Indonesian New Guinea follows similar relationships to Indonesian Borneo. We highlight the opportunities for policy reform and the importance of working with indigenous communities, local leaders, and provincial government to protect the biological and cultural richness still embodied in this remarkable region.

Competing Interest Statement

David Gaveau is a member of the IUCN Oil Palm Task Force, a group tasked by the IUCN to investigate the sustainability of palm oil and he has done oil palm related work for this task force, and for Greenpeace. Erik Meijaard chairs and has received funding from the IUCN Oil Palm Task Force and he has done work paid by palm oil companies and the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil. Douglas Sheil is a member of the IUCN Oil Palm Task Force and he has facilitated student research in an oil palm concession (ANJ-Agri).

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The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license.
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Posted February 14, 2021.
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Forest loss in Indonesian New Guinea: trends, drivers, and outlook
David L.A. Gaveau, Lucas Santos, Bruno Locatelli, Mohammad A. Salim, Husnayaen Husnayaen, Erik Meijaard, Charlie Heatubun, Douglas Sheil
bioRxiv 2021.02.13.431006; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.13.431006
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Forest loss in Indonesian New Guinea: trends, drivers, and outlook
David L.A. Gaveau, Lucas Santos, Bruno Locatelli, Mohammad A. Salim, Husnayaen Husnayaen, Erik Meijaard, Charlie Heatubun, Douglas Sheil
bioRxiv 2021.02.13.431006; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.13.431006

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