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Bayesian analysis of source tracking markers to estimate the effects of an urban sanitation intervention on human fecal contamination in Mozambique

View ORCID ProfileDavid A. Holcomb, View ORCID ProfileJackie Knee, View ORCID ProfileDrew Capone, Trent Sumner, Zaida Adriano, Rassul Nalá, View ORCID ProfileOliver Cumming, View ORCID ProfileJoe Brown, View ORCID ProfileJill R. Stewart
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.19.432000
David A. Holcomb
aDepartment of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States
bDepartment of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States
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Jackie Knee
cSchool of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States
dDepartment of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
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Drew Capone
aDepartment of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States
cSchool of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States
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Trent Sumner
cSchool of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States
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Zaida Adriano
eWE Consult, Maputo, Moçambique
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Rassul Nalá
fInstituto Nacional de Saúde, Ministério da Saúde, Maputo, Moçambique
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Oliver Cumming
dDepartment of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
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Joe Brown
aDepartment of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States
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Jill R. Stewart
aDepartment of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States
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  • For correspondence: jill.stewart@unc.edu
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ABSTRACT

Fecal source tracking (FST) may be useful to assess pathways of fecal contamination in domestic environments and to estimate the impacts of water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) interventions in low-income settings. We measured two non-specific and two human-associated fecal indicators in water, soil, and surfaces before and after a shared latrine intervention from low-income households in Maputo, Mozambique participating in the Maputo Sanitation (MapSan) trial. Up to a quarter of households were impacted by human fecal contamination, but trends were unaffected by improvements to shared sanitation facilities. The intervention reduced E. coli gene concentrations in soil but did not impact culturable E. coli or the prevalence of human FST markers in a difference-in-differences analysis. Using a novel Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach, we revealed a high amount of uncertainty associated with the FST marker measurements. Diagnostic accuracy-corrected intervention effect estimates were near the null and were imprecise. The field of microbial source tracking would benefit from adding measures of diagnostic accuracy to better interpret findings, particularly when FST analyses convey insufficient information for robust inference. With improved measures, FST could help identify dominant pathways of human and animal fecal contamination in communities and guide implementation of effective interventions to safeguard health.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license.
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Posted February 19, 2021.
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Bayesian analysis of source tracking markers to estimate the effects of an urban sanitation intervention on human fecal contamination in Mozambique
David A. Holcomb, Jackie Knee, Drew Capone, Trent Sumner, Zaida Adriano, Rassul Nalá, Oliver Cumming, Joe Brown, Jill R. Stewart
bioRxiv 2021.02.19.432000; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.19.432000
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Bayesian analysis of source tracking markers to estimate the effects of an urban sanitation intervention on human fecal contamination in Mozambique
David A. Holcomb, Jackie Knee, Drew Capone, Trent Sumner, Zaida Adriano, Rassul Nalá, Oliver Cumming, Joe Brown, Jill R. Stewart
bioRxiv 2021.02.19.432000; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.19.432000

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