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Causal approach to environmental risks of seabed mining

View ORCID ProfileLaura Kaikkonen, View ORCID ProfileInari Helle, Kirsi Kostamo, View ORCID ProfileSakari Kuikka, View ORCID ProfileAnna Törnroos, View ORCID ProfileHenrik Nygård, Riikka Venesjärvi, View ORCID ProfileLaura Uusitalo
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.21.432138
Laura Kaikkonen
1Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 65, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
2Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
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  • For correspondence: laura.kaikkonen@iki.fi
Inari Helle
2Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
3Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Latokartanonkaari 9, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland
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Kirsi Kostamo
4Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland
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Sakari Kuikka
1Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 65, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
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Anna Törnroos
5Åbo Akademi University, Environmental and Marine Biology, The Sea, Tykistönkatu 6, FI-20520 Turku, Finland
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Henrik Nygård
4Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland
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Riikka Venesjärvi
3Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Latokartanonkaari 9, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland
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Laura Uusitalo
4Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland
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Abstract

Seabed mining is approaching the commercial mining phase across the world’ s oceans. This rapid industrialization of seabed resource use is introducing new pressures to marine environments. The environmental impacts of such pressures should be carefully evaluated prior to permitting new activities, yet observational data is mostly missing. Here, we examine the environmental risks of seabed mining using a causal, probabilistic network approach. Drawing on a series of interviews with a multidisciplinary group of experts, we outline the cause-effect pathways related to seabed mining activities to inform quantitative risk assessments. The approach consists of (1) iterative model building with experts to identify the causal connections between seabed mining activities and the affected ecosystem components, and (2) quantitative probabilistic modelling to provide estimates of mortality of benthic fauna in the Baltic Sea. The model is used to evaluate alternative mining scenarios, offering a quantitative means to highlight the uncertainties around the impacts of mining. We further outline requirements for operationalizing quantitative risk assessments, highlighting the importance of a cross-disciplinary approach to risk identification. The model can be used to support permitting processes by providing a more comprehensive description of the potential environmental impacts of seabed resource use, allowing iterative updating of the model as new information becomes available.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license.
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Posted February 21, 2021.
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Causal approach to environmental risks of seabed mining
Laura Kaikkonen, Inari Helle, Kirsi Kostamo, Sakari Kuikka, Anna Törnroos, Henrik Nygård, Riikka Venesjärvi, Laura Uusitalo
bioRxiv 2021.02.21.432138; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.21.432138
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Causal approach to environmental risks of seabed mining
Laura Kaikkonen, Inari Helle, Kirsi Kostamo, Sakari Kuikka, Anna Törnroos, Henrik Nygård, Riikka Venesjärvi, Laura Uusitalo
bioRxiv 2021.02.21.432138; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.21.432138

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