SUMMARY
Background Personalized medicine promises individualized disease prediction and treatment. The convergence of machine learning (ML) and available multi-modal data is key moving forward. We build upon previous work to deliver multi-modal predictions of Parkinson’s Disease (PD).
Methods We performed automated ML on multi-modal data from the Parkinson’s Progression Marker Initiative (PPMI). After selecting the best performing algorithm, all PPMI data was used to tune the selected model. The model was validated in the Parkinson’s Disease Biomarker Program (PDBP) dataset. Finally, networks were built to identify gene communities specific to PD.
Findings Our initial model showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 89.72% for the diagnosis of PD. The tuned model was then tested for validation on external data (PDBP, AUC 85.03%). Optimizing thresholds for classification, increased the diagnosis prediction accuracy (balanced accuracy) and other metrics. Combining data modalities outperforms the single biomarker paradigm. UPSIT was the largest contributing predictor for the classification of PD. The transcriptomic data was used to construct a network of disease-relevant transcripts.
Interpretation We have built a model using an automated ML pipeline to make improved multi-omic predictions of PD. The model developed improves disease risk prediction, a critical step for better assessment of PD risk. We constructed gene expression networks for the next generation of genomics-derived interventions. Our automated ML approach allows complex predictive models to be reproducible and accessible to the community.
Funding National Institute on Aging, National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, the Michael J. Fox Foundation, and the Global Parkinson’s Genetics Program.
Evidence before this study Prior research into predictors of Parkinson’s disease (PD) has either used basic statistical methods to make predictions across data modalities, or they have focused on a single data type or biomarker model. We have done this using an open-source automated machine learning (ML) framework on extensive multi-modal data, which we believe yields robust and reproducible results. We consider this the first true multi-modality ML study of PD risk classification.
Added value of this study We used a variety of linear, non-linear, kernel, neural networks, and ensemble ML algorithms to generate an accurate classification of both cases and controls in independent datasets using data that is not involved in PD diagnosis itself at study recruitment. The model built in this paper significantly improves upon our previous models that used the entire training dataset in previous work1. Building on this earlier work, we showed that the PD diagnosis can be refined using improved algorithmic classification tools that may yield potential biological insights. We have taken careful consideration to develop and validate this model using public controlled-access datasets and an open-source ML framework to allow for reproducible and transparent results.
Implications of all available evidence Training, validating, and tuning a diagnostic algorithm for PD will allow us to augment clinical diagnoses or risk assessments with less need for complex and expensive exams. Going forward, these models can be built on remote or asynchronously collected data which may be important in a growing telemedicine paradigm. More refined diagnostics will also increase clinical trial efficiency by potentially refining phenotyping and predicting onset, allowing providers to identify potential cases earlier. Early detection could lead to improved treatment response and higher efficacy. Finally, as part of our workflow, we built new networks representing communities of genes correlated in PD cases in a hypothesis-free manner, showing how new and existing genes may be connected and highlighting therapeutic opportunities.
Competing Interest Statement
HL, HI, FF, DV, YS, and MAN declare that they are consultants employed by Data Tecnica International, whose participation in this is part of a consulting agreement between the US National Institutes of Health and said company. HRM is employed by UCL. In the last 24 months he reports paid consultancy from Biogen, Biohaven, Lundbeck; lecture fees/honoraria from Wellcome Trust, Movement Disorders Society. Research Grants from Parkinsons UK, Cure Parkinsons Trust, PSP Association, CBD Solutions, Drake Foundation, Medical Research Council, Michael J Fox Foundation. HRM is also a co-applicant on a patent application related to C9ORF72 - Method for diagnosing a neurodegenerative disease (PCT/GB2012/052140).
Footnotes
Integrating clinico-demographic, genetic, and transcriptomic data within an automated machine learning open science framework to predict Parkinson’s disease and identify potential novel therapeutic targets for drug development.
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