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Cherry-picking information: humans actively sample evidence to support prior beliefs

Paula Kaanders, View ORCID ProfilePradyumna Sepulveda, View ORCID ProfileTomas Folke, Pietro Ortoleva, Benedetto De Martino
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.29.450332
Paula Kaanders
1Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
2Wellcome Centre for Integrative Neuroimaging, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
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  • For correspondence: paula.kaanders@psy.ox.ac.uk benedettodemartino@gmail.com
Pradyumna Sepulveda
3Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience, University College London, London, United Kingdom
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  • ORCID record for Pradyumna Sepulveda
Tomas Folke
4Centre for Business Research, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
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Pietro Ortoleva
5Department of Economics, Columbia University, New York, United States of America
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Benedetto De Martino
3Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience, University College London, London, United Kingdom
6Wellcome Centre for Human Neuroimaging, University College London, London, United Kingdom
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  • For correspondence: paula.kaanders@psy.ox.ac.uk benedettodemartino@gmail.com
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Abstract

No one likes to be wrong. Previous research has shown that participants may underweight information incompatible with previous choices, a phenomenon called confirmation bias. In this paper we argue that a similar bias exists in the way information is actively sought. We investigate how choice influences information gathering using a perceptual choice task and find that participants sample more information from a previously chosen alternative. Furthermore, the higher the confidence in the initial choice, the more biased information sampling becomes. As a consequence, when faced with the possibility of revising an earlier decision, participants are more likely to stick with their original choice, even when incorrect. Critically, we show that agency controls this phenomenon. The effect disappears in a fixed sampling condition where presentation of evidence is controlled by the experimenter, suggesting that the way in which confirmatory evidence is acquired critically impacts the decision process. These results suggest active information acquisition plays a critical role in the propagation of strongly held beliefs over time.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Footnotes

  • https://github.com/BDMLab/Kaanders_et_al_2021

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
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Posted June 30, 2021.
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Cherry-picking information: humans actively sample evidence to support prior beliefs
Paula Kaanders, Pradyumna Sepulveda, Tomas Folke, Pietro Ortoleva, Benedetto De Martino
bioRxiv 2021.06.29.450332; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.29.450332
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Cherry-picking information: humans actively sample evidence to support prior beliefs
Paula Kaanders, Pradyumna Sepulveda, Tomas Folke, Pietro Ortoleva, Benedetto De Martino
bioRxiv 2021.06.29.450332; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.29.450332

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