Abstract
Economic impacts from plant pests are often felt at the regional scale, yet some impacts expand to the global scale through the alignment of a pest’s invasion potentials. Such globally invasive species (i.e., paninvasives) are like the human pathogens that cause pandemics. Like pandemics, assessing paninvasion risk for an emerging regional pest is key for stakeholders to take early actions that avoid market disruption. Here, we develop the paninvasion severity assessment framework and use it to assess a rapidly spreading regional U.S. grape pest, the spotted lanternfly planthopper (Lycorma delicatula; SLF), to spread and disrupt the global wine market. We found that SLF invasion potentials are aligned globally because important viticultural regions with suitable environments for SLF establishment also heavily trade with invaded U.S. states. If the U.S. acts as an invasive bridgehead, Italy, France, Spain, and other important wine exporters are likely to experience the next SLF introductions. Risk to the global wine market is high unless stakeholders work to reduce SLF invasion potentials in the U.S. and globally.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Footnotes
1) We have clarified the manuscript and thoroughly discussed metrics about potential impact and the degree of commerce with potential new areas. Specifically, we discuss new work illustrating the impact of spotted lanternfly to grape and wine production and perform an analysis that shows the metrics we used for commerce do indeed explain the spread pattern of spotted lanternfly. 2) We include an extensive discussion stressing that severity of an invasive pest also depends on local weather patterns that varying greatly across invaded locations and with climate change. 3) We have addressed a key issue that the full range of adaptation and plasticity of any pest to environmental variables are usually available only at the time the potential invasive range of an invasive pest gets occupied. This caveat is stressed within our caveats section titled (Step 4: Articulate Caveats). 4) These reviews led us to two insights that strengthen the applicability of the paninvasion severity framework. First, like pandemic assessments, caveats exist for all paninvasion assessments. We now include a fourth step to the framework (Step 4: Articulate Caveats) where we state all known caveats to our current spotted lanternfly assessment to focus future research efforts. Second, we argue that paninvasion assessments should be performed early and iteratively using new data as they emerge. Pandemic assessments are iterative, reassessing epidemiological rates as a pathogen spreads into new human populations. We now stress that paninvasion assessments should also be iterative and updating invasion potential based on the most up-to-date insights obtained as a pest spreads into new regions. 5) We have revised the manuscript with updated information in the results and discussion based on updates since the original writing and revisions. We have also updated the availability of data.
