Abstract
What prevents populations of a species from adapting to the novel environments outside the species’ geographic distribution? Previous models highlighted how gene flow across spatial environmental gradients determines species expansion vs. extinction and the location of species range limits. However, space is only one of two axes of environmental variation — environments also vary in time, and we know temporal environmental variation has important consequences for population demography and evolution. We used an individual based evolutionary model to explore how temporal stochasticity in environmental conditions influences the spread of populations across a spatial environmental gradient. We find that temporal stochasticity greatly alters our predictions for range dynamics compared to temporally static environments. When temporal variance is equal across the landscape, the fate of species (expansion vs. extinction) is determined by the interaction between the degree of temporal autocorrelation in environmental fluctuations and the steepness of the spatial environmental gradient. When the magnitude of temporal variance changes across the landscape, stable range limits form where this variance becomes large enough to prevent local population adaptation and persistence. These results illustrate the pivotal influence of temporal stochasticity on the likelihood of populations colonizing novel habitats and the location of species range limits.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.